The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centre has issued a third-level (brown) hazard warning due to a further critical drop in river water levels across five western regions. The warning is in force from 15 to 25 August. In some areas, levels may reach or fall below historical lows, whilst in small watercourses, the flow may cease entirely, posing risks to water supply and the water management sector.
Briefly about the main points
- The low-water warning covers five western regions.
- The worst situation is likely to occur on small rivers.
- Water levels will approach the criteria for low water.
- A shortage is already being recorded in the Dniester Reservoir basin.
- The localised rain on 17 August does not guarantee a return to normal flow levels.
Which swimming pools are covered by the warning?
A critical drop in water levels is forecast in the Dniester basin within the Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil and Khmelnytskyi regions. Dangerous hydrological phenomena are also expected in the San River basin in Lviv Oblast and in the Western Bug sub-basin within Lviv and Volyn Oblasts.
Water levels will fall due to predominantly dry weather. In some areas, levels may reach their lowest points on record or fall below them.
Risks to water intakes and local water bodies
The greatest difficulties are likely to be encountered on small watercourses. According to weather forecasters, the flow there may cease entirely, which could complicate water supply, the operation of water intake facilities and the maintenance of the required water levels in certain reservoirs.
In the Dniester basin, the water shortage is already having a tangible impact. According to the State Water Agency, the inflow into the Dniester Reservoir in early August fell to 42 cubic metres per second — 17% of the norm — which was the lowest figure since the reservoir began operating in 1985. These figures do not reflect water levels in the Syan or the Western Bug, but they do illustrate the difficult situation in the Dniester basin.
Ukraine and Moldova have agreed to reduce the discharge from the Dniester Integrated Hydropower Complex to 75 cubic metres per second by the end of August, citing the river’s critically low water levels and the need to use the resource rationally.
The dry weather is preventing the rivers from recovering quickly
On 16 August, dry and hot weather is expected in most regions of Ukraine: daytime temperatures ranging from +27 to +33 degrees, and night-time temperatures from +8 to +16. No significant rainfall is forecast that could quickly improve the situation on the western rivers.
The low water levels were caused by a prolonged lack of rainfall, rather than a single hot day. In August, rainfall in the western regions may amount to 50–70% of the climatic norm. In the western and northern regions, short-lived showers and thunderstorms are possible in some places on 17 August, but these do not guarantee a rapid recovery in river water levels.
