Russia may be preparing a new large-scale missile and drone strike on Ukraine in the period up to 23 August. On 19 August, Ukrainian media, citing monitoring sources, reported on the redeployment of Russian strategic bombers and the possible build-up of a significant number of missiles. Some reports claim that US intelligence has warned of an increased threat.
Russia is redeploying its strategic air force
According to monitoring sources, the Russian military has redeployed part of its strategic air force to airfields from which aircraft could be used to carry out missile strikes on Ukraine.
In particular, it is reported that six Tu-95MSs, which could be used to launch cruise missiles. Observers also suggest the possible deployment of three Tu-160s.
On 19 August, the Ukrainian media also reported on the redeployment of six Tu-95MS aircraft and Russia’s preparations for a potential large-scale attack.
Russia regularly uses its Tu-95MS and Tu-160 strategic bombers as carriers of cruise missiles during combined attacks on Ukraine.
Observers are assessing the potential arsenal for an attack
According to unofficial estimates by monitoring channels, Russia may have mobilised a significant number of air assets in preparation for a potential attack.
It is reported that it may be possible to use approximately 24 cruise missiles from six Tu-95MS aircraft and up to 18 missiles from three Tu-160 aircraft. Up to eight sea-based cruise missiles and up to eight «Zircon»/«Onyx» missiles are listed separately.
Ballistic missiles may pose the greatest single threat. Observers suggest the possibility of preparations being underway up to 30 ballistic missiles, as well as several missiles of North Korean origin.
If one were to add up the estimates provided by the monitors, the potential number of missiles of various types could indeed be close to 100 units. However, this does not mean that they will all be launched during a single attack.
Hundreds of drones could be added to the missiles
There are separate reports of a large number of Russian attack UAVs being prepared.
According to estimates by monitoring organisations, in the event of a potential combined attack, Russia may use up to 80 jet-powered attack drones, as well as hundreds of other unmanned aerial vehicles and decoy drones.
The tactic of using various air attack capabilities simultaneously or in succession allows the Russian Federation to attempt to overwhelm the Ukrainian air defence system.
Russia has recently stepped up its air strikes on Ukraine. According to figures cited by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, more than 1,500 missiles and drones were launched at Ukraine in the course of one of the past weeks.
Could an attack really take place tonight?
Monitoring channels are referred to as the night of 20 August one of the possible timeframes for an attack. At the same time, the redeployment of aircraft and the build-up of missiles do not, in themselves, allow us to determine the exact timing of the launches with any certainty.
The Russian command may change the timing of the operation, use only some of the resources it has prepared, or divide them between several attacks.
That is precisely why the figures given should not be taken as an accurate scenario for a future attack.
The following remain the official signals of imminent danger Announcements from the Ukrainian Air Force and air-raid warnings.
The threat is mounting in the run-up to Independence Day
The period of heightened attention falls on the days leading up to 24 August — Ukraine’s Independence Day. In previous years, too, Russia had carried out or prepared intensified attacks around dates of symbolic significance for Ukraine.
Furthermore, in recent days, the Russian Federation has continued to attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector and civilian infrastructure. Over the past week, there have been reports of a significant increase in attacks on the energy sector.
Against this backdrop, the redeployment of strategic air power is a reason to pay close attention to official warnings; however, The exact scale and timing of a potential attack remain unknown.
