Against the backdrop of talks between Kyiv, Moscow and Washington, Russia is continuing to prepare its strategic air force for a possible new large-scale strike on Ukraine. Monitoring sources report the redeployment of Tu-95MS bombers and the arming of some of the aircraft with cruise missiles. According to their assessment, the strike force could be ready as early as next week. At the same time, the Air Force has not officially confirmed a specific date for a possible attack.
Briefly about the main points
- Monitoring sources are recording the activity of Russian strategic aviation.
- This week, there were reports of two flights by Tu-95MS missile-carrying aircraft.
- According to monitoring organisations, a further five Tu-95MS aircraft may have been equipped with cruise missiles in the Far East.
- The redeployment may be part of preparations for a new large-scale attack.
- Observers believe an attack could take place as early as next week.
Russia is once again moving its strategic missile carriers
Monitoring channels tracking Russian strategic aviation are reporting new activity by missile-carrying aircraft Tu-95MS. According to their figures, at least two flights by aircraft of this type, which may be linked to the redeployment and preparation of an air strike group.
Separately, the monitors state that A further five Tu-95MS aircraft in the Far East may have been equipped with cruise missiles. Russia has used a similar tactic before: strategic bombers are deployed deep within Russian territory, after which, ahead of forthcoming operations, some of the aircraft are moved and prepared for missile launches.
The Air Force has previously explained that the redeployment of strategic aircraft and activity at the relevant airfields may indeed be among the signs preparations for strikes, however, the movements of the aircraft alone do not necessarily mean that an attack will take place on a specific day.
Observers expect a massive offensive next week
According to monitoring sources, the current activity may indicate the completion of the latest training cycle for strategic aviation. That is why they suggest that A massive missile and drone strike could take place as early as next week.
The exact nature of a possible attack, the number of missiles and the potential targets are not currently known with certainty. Russia traditionally combines cruise and ballistic missiles with large numbers of attack drones during large-scale attacks. On the night of 5 September alone, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with ballistic missiles and 167 drones of various types, whilst the Air Force recorded strikes at 23 locations.
Preparations are taking place in parallel with the negotiations
Russian strategic aviation activity is being observed at a time when the US is attempting to revitalise the negotiation process.
Representatives Donald Trump Steve Witkoff і Jared Kushner On 5 September, they held talks in Moscow, а They are expected in Kyiv on 6 September. The Ukrainian side is hoping to hear the outcome of the discussions in the Kremlin and the US proposals regarding next steps.
For the duration of these diplomatic talks, Ukraine has declared its readiness not to carry out air strikes on Moscow and expects a similar cessation of Russian strikes on Kyiv. The Kremlin, for its part, has announced an order not to attack the Ukrainian capital for three days. However, this does not mean a complete cessation of attacks on Ukrainian territory.
There is no general ceasefire between Ukraine and the Russian Federation
Despite diplomatic efforts, the parties have not reached a comprehensive ceasefire.
Head of the Office of the President Kirill Budanov reported that Ukraine had put forward a proposal to Russia for a ceasefire, including along the front line, but Moscow had not given a positive response. Fighting continues.
Consequently, the negotiation process has not yet brought Russia’s military activity to a halt.
Reports of the Tu-95MS’s preparation and redeployment remain an important indication of a possible new phase in the Russian Federation’s air campaign. At the same time, the monitors’ forecast of a strike as early as next week does not constitute an official warning from the Air Force, so the exact timing of a possible attack remains unknown.
