Fuel prices have risen: will Russia’s attacks on petrol stations have an impact?

Petrol and diesel prices have risen significantly over the past week, whilst Russian strikes on petrol stations have created new risks for the fuel market.

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Fuel prices in Ukraine have risen significantly over the past week. Petrol and diesel have seen the sharpest increases — by an average of more than 2 UAH per litre — whilst the price of LPG has remained virtually unchanged. This rise comes against the backdrop of a fresh surge in global oil prices, and by the end of the week, direct Russian strikes on petrol stations in Kyiv had compounded the market risks.

Briefly about the main points

  • A-95 rose in price by 1.96 UAH per litre over the week, reaching 83.96 UAH.
  • The price of diesel rose by 2.23 UAH per litre — to 94.63 UAH.
  • Autogas prices have remained virtually unchanged at 43.44 UAH per litre.
  • Major chains have raised petrol and diesel prices by 2–3 UAH per litre on the whole.
  • On 10–11 September, Russian drones attacked three UKRNAFTA petrol stations in Kyiv.

How have fuel prices changed over the past week?

According to data from the «A-95» Consulting Group, published by the Ministry of Finance, as at 11 September, the average price of A-95 petrol in Ukraine stood at 83.96 UAH per litre. As recently as 4 September, it cost an average of 82 UAH. Thus, in just one week, the price of petrol has risen by 1.96 UAH, or approximately 2.4%.

The price of diesel fuel has risen even more significantly in absolute terms — from 92.40 to 94.63 UAH/l, that is, at 2.23 UAH, or approximately 2.4%. The price of A-92 petrol rose from 77.86 to 79.69 UAH/l, whilst that of premium A-95 petrol rose from 85.17 to 87.42 UAH/l.

Autogas remains the most stable. Over the same period, its average price rose by only 43.38 to 43.44 UAH/l — by just 6 kopecks.

Fuel 4 September 11 September Change
A-95 Premium 85.17 UAH 87.42 UAH +2.25 UAH
A-95 82.00 UAH 83.96 UAH +1.96 UAH
A-92 77.86 UAH 79.69 UAH +1.83 UAH
Diesel 92.40 UAH 94.63 UAH +2.23 UAH
Autogas 43.38 UAH 43.44 UAH +0.06 UAH

What’s happening at Ukraine’s major petrol stations

This increase is evident not only in the national average price. Over the past week, most major chains have also updated their shelf prices.

On UKRNAFTA, the price of A-95 rose from 79.90 to 81.90 UAH/l, whilst diesel — from 89.90 to 91.90 UAH/l. At WOG, the price of A-95 rose from 85.90 to 87.90 UAH, diesel — up to 97.90 UAH/l. At OKKO, the price of A-95 petrol rose by 2 UAH over the week and reached 87.90 UAH, whilst diesel costs 3 UAH straight away, up to 98.90 UAH/l.

At SOCAR, the average price of A-95 as at 11 September reached 88.90 UAH/l, diesel engine — 98.90 UAH/l. At AMIC, the prices were 82.90 and 94.01 UAH/l respectively. Meanwhile, autogas prices remained virtually unchanged at most petrol station chains.

This trend is therefore evident across the market as a whole: over the past week, petrol and diesel prices at major chains have risen by mostly 2–3 UAH per litre.

Why is the price of fuel rising right now?

The most Russian attacks on petrol stations There is no explanation for the current surge in prices. Prices at Ukrainian petrol stations began to rise even before the attacks on 10–11 September.

One of the key external factors was the global oil market. On 4 September, Brent was trading at around $95 per barrel, and by the end of 11 September it was already worth more than $104. Over the course of the week, Brent rose by more than 8%. This was due to concerns over oil supplies following the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and attacks on key energy transport routes.

It is precisely the trend in global prices that coincides closely with the start of a new rise in Ukrainian prices. As early as 7–9 September – that is, before the attacks on petrol stations in Kyiv – the average price of A-95 began to fluctuate between 82.22 and 82.74 UAH/litre, whilst diesel ranged from 92.63 to 93.22 UAH/litre.

Russia has started striking petrol stations directly

However, towards the end of the week, another risk emerged for the Ukrainian fuel market — Russia began launching direct strikes on petrol stations in the capital.

On 10 September, a Russian jet A drone attacked a petrol station UKRNAFTA in Kyiv. The company reported damage to its buildings and equipment. According to the city authorities, four people were injured as a result of the attack at the petrol station.

The very next morning, 11 September, Russian jet drones attacked two more UKRNAFTA petrol stations — on the right and left banks of Kyiv. One of them was struck a second time. The company reported serious damage to buildings and critical damage to equipment.

Consequently, over the course of two days, at least three petrol stations belonging to one of the country’s largest state-owned chains.

Could attacks by the Russian Federation push prices up even further?

At this stage, there is no reason to believe that the attacks on individual petrol stations in Kyiv have already caused a nationwide rise in fuel prices. Prices had already begun to rise, and the main trend coincided with a sharp rise in global oil prices.

At the same time, systematic attacks on fuel infrastructure pose an additional risk. If the attacks extend not only to individual petrol stations but also to large depots, oil terminals or logistics hubs, this could complicate fuel deliveries, increase operators’ costs and cause localised disruptions.

There are currently no signs of a nationwide fuel shortage. Following the attacks, UKRNAFTA stated that the damaged facilities would be repaired and that the network would continue to operate.

The main trend in mid-September remains a different one: Petrol and diesel prices in Ukraine have already risen by around 2–2.5% in the space of a week, whilst the price of crude oil on the world market has risen by more than 8%. This means that there is still a risk of further price adjustments at Ukrainian petrol stations, particularly if high global oil prices persist and Russian attacks on fuel infrastructure continue.

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