A month and a half before the US mid-term elections 51% likely voters said they would support the Democratic Party candidate in their constituency, whilst 43% would vote for the Republican candidate. This is evidenced by a new nationwide poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena University. The survey also revealed low approval ratings for President Donald Trump and significant voter dissatisfaction with the cost of living. However, the results of the national poll do not automatically determine the distribution of seats in the House of Representatives or the Senate, where elections are held on a constituency-by-constituency and state-by-state basis.
- The Democrats are supported by 51% likely voters.
- Republicans — 43%.
- 38% approve of Trump’s work.
- 71% are dissatisfied with his policy on the cost of living.
- The election will take place on 3 November.
The Democrats won 51%, the Republicans 43%
The NYT/Siena poll was conducted from 8 to 13 September, amongst 1,503 likely voters across the country. When asked which party’s candidate they would support in the congressional election in their constituency, 51% said the Democrats, whilst 43% said the Republicans.
Thus, the margin of difference in this poll is around eight percentage points. The margin of error for likely voters is ±2.9 percentage points.
The difference is particularly striking among independent voters: 57% of them said they intended to support the Democratic candidate, whilst 34% said they would support the Republican candidate.
Trump’s approval rating stands at 38%
According to the study, the activities Donald Trump approve 38% likely voters. At the same time, 52% stated that they «strongly disapprove» of the president’s performance — the highest figure of its kind in the NYT/Siena series of polls during his second presidential term.
The most dissatisfaction relates to the value of life. 71% of those surveyed view Trump’s actions on this issue negatively, whilst 28% are in favour of them.
Only 14% of respondents said that the US economy is currently in better shape than it was a year ago. In January, 31% of those surveyed held this view.
Voters’ views on the economy and immigration have changed
The survey showed that respondents were more likely to name the Democratic Party as the one they trusted most on a number of key issues.
Regarding economies The ratio stands at 51% to 45% in favour of the Democrats. As for immigration — 52% versus 45%. On the issue of the value of life, the Democrats scored 51%, whilst the Republicans scored 43%.
The greatest difference was recorded in the healthcare sector — 60% versus 36%.
These figures are also noteworthy because the economy and immigration were among the issues on which Trump and the Republicans held strong positions during the 2024 presidential election.
A poll does not determine the outcome of an election
Despite the regional differences between the parties, the results of such a poll cannot be directly translated into the number of future seats in Congress.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives They are elected in individual constituencies, and around a third of the Senate is up for re-election this year. Electoral maps, the situation in specific states and constituencies, and individual candidates may differ significantly from the national figures.
The NYT authors themselves also point out that even a lead of almost nine points in the national poll does not guarantee a particular outcome in key Senate races.
The by-elections will take place on 3 November
The US federal mid-term elections are scheduled for 3 November 2026. Americans will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and some members of the Senate.
It is these elections that will determine the composition of Congress for the second half of Donald Trump’s current presidential term.
