France is stepping up its preparations for a possible increase in Russian hybrid attacks. Following a closed-door briefing at the Élysée Palace, President Emmanuel Macron instructed the government to draw up a plan to protect critical infrastructure and sensitive sites. He stated that the risk of attacks against the country is real and that the nature of threats in Europe is changing.
Briefly about the main points
- Macron has instructed the government to make arrangements to protect critical infrastructure.
- The plan provides for countering cyber operations, acts of sabotage and drone attacks.
- The sectors covered include energy, transport, water, telecommunications and others.
- ‘Horizon 2027’ is a media assessment, not a forecast by the security services.
A threat assessment was presented at a closed-door briefing
18 September Macron He convened a meeting at the Élysée Palace attended by the leaders of the parliamentary parties, presidential candidates and representatives of the security services. Representatives from the domestic and foreign intelligence services (DGSI and DGSE), military intelligence (DRM), and the General Secretariat for Defence and National Security addressed the participants.
According to *Le Monde*, politicians were presented with a confidential briefing containing intelligence reports. The meeting took place against a backdrop of an increase in acts of sabotage, cyber-attacks, suspicious incidents and drone operations across Europe.
Following the briefing, the President stated that the nature of Russian aggression and threats in Europe is changing. France, he said, had already been the target of information and cyber operations, some of which have been officially attributed to Russia.
The plan will cover key sectors and sensitive sites
The government must draw up measures to protect critical infrastructure and sensitive sites from cyber operations, acts of sabotage and drone attacks. French legislation classifies the following sectors as critical or highly critical: energy, transport (including rail), drinking water supply, digital infrastructure, telecommunications, healthcare and the financial system.
Consequently, the enhanced security measures relate to the risks of disruption to the electricity grid, transport, communications and water supply. The specific list of facilities discussed at the closed-door briefing has not been made public.
2027 has not been named as the official date of a possible attack
An assessment has emerged in the French media suggesting that the timeline for a possible significant escalation – previously thought to be around 2030 – may have shifted to 2027. This is a media assessment, not an official forecast by the French intelligence services.
In its article of 19 September, *Le Monde* did not claim that Russia would definitely launch a large-scale attack in the autumn of 2027. The Élysée Palace’s official position is that the threat level is elevated and the risk is real, without specifying the timing of a future attack.
Paris has already accused Russia of cyber espionage
In July, France officially accused Unit 61240 of the Russian FSB’s 16th Centre of carrying out cyberattacks and espionage over a number of years. The French authorities named the Ministry of Defence, diplomatic institutions and an organisation working with sensitive technologies for the defence industry among the targets.
French authorities have also reported attempts to gain prior access to energy infrastructure. These involve attempts to establish a foothold in information systems in advance, with a view to potentially deploying malicious software during a future crisis.
The authorities are preparing drills in the event of a nationwide power cut
Even before this latest warning, the French authorities had begun planning for a drill in 2027 to prepare for a large-scale power cut. The scenario is designed to test the preparedness of ministries, local authorities and prefectures in the event of disruptions to mobile communications, the operation of drinking water pumping stations, transport and other essential services.
Such exercises do not imply that Paris is anticipating a specific Russian attack during this period. Macron believes that the aim of Russia’s hybrid operations is to intimidate European states and weaken their support for Ukraine; however, France has no plans to change its stance towards Kyiv.
