Bosnia chooses its future: the elections could determine the country’s path to the EU

More than 3.4 million voters are electing the presidium, parliament and regional authorities against a backdrop of stagnation in European integration and a struggle for influence between external forces.

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General elections are taking place in Bosnia and Herzegovina on 4 October, the outcome of which could significantly influence the country’s future path towards the European Union and the balance of influence between Brussels, Washington and Moscow. Voters are electing members of the collective presidency, the national parliament and regional authorities. Polling stations will remain open until 19:00 local time, after which the first preliminary results are expected.

Briefly about the main points

  • General elections are taking place in Bosnia and Herzegovina on 4 October.
  • Citizens elect the country’s presidium, parliament and regional authorities.
  • There are over 3.4 million voters on the electoral roll.
  • One of the key issues in the election is the future pace of the country’s integration into the EU.
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What are the people of Bosnia and Herzegovina voting on?

The Central Electoral Commission has scheduled the general election for Sunday, 4 October. Members of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the House of Representatives of the country’s parliament, the Parliament of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the National Assembly of the Republika Srpska, the President and Vice-Presidents of the Republika Srpska, as well as the cantonal assemblies.

The following have been entered in the Central Voters’ Register 3,414,364 people. Polling stations opened at 07:00 and are due to remain open until 19:00. The Central Election Commission also reported the use of updated voting control procedures, whilst Reuters reported the introduction of biometric identification and electronic scanners to reduce the risk of fraud.

Why are these elections important for EU accession?

Bosnia and Herzegovina has been granted candidate status for accession to the European Union in December 2022. In March 2024, EU leaders gave their political approval for membership negotiations to begin; however, the full-scale negotiation process is contingent upon the implementation of a number of reforms.

Brussels’ key requirements include strengthening the rule of law, combating corruption and organised crime, reforming public administration and ensuring that institutions operate more effectively. Internal political disputes have repeatedly blocked the adoption of necessary decisions. That is precisely why the composition of the new government could have a direct impact on the pace of Sarajevo’s further rapprochement with the European Union.

The country is still operating under a complex system following the Dayton Agreement

The political system of Bosnia and Herzegovina took shape following the 1992–1995 war and the Dayton Peace Agreement. The state consists of two main entities — Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Bosniaks and Croats form the majority, and Republika Srpska, where Serbs make up the majority. At the national level, there is a central parliament and a three-member collective presidium.

This system was intended to ensure stability after the war, but it often leads to political deadlock when representatives of different ethnic parties are unable to agree on key decisions. Voters’ dissatisfaction is exacerbated by the economic slowdown and the long-standing political crisis.

The EU, the US and Russia are vying for influence

The European Union is keen to continue its enlargement into the Western Balkans and to integrate Bosnia and Herzegovina into European political and economic structures. The US is also actively involved in the country and supports, in particular, energy projects designed to reduce the region’s dependence on Russian gas.

Russia, on the other hand, has traditionally supported the leadership of the Republika Srpska and political forces that advocate closer ties with Moscow and Belgrade. As a result, domestic Bosnian politics is increasingly intertwined with the wider rivalry between major powers in the Balkans.

When will the election results be announced?

Voting is due to end at 7.00 pm local time. Once the polling stations have closed, the Central Electoral Commission will begin to publish preliminary results.

Until voting has concluded, an election silence is in force across the country, and the publication of opinion poll results is prohibited. The final political landscape will become clearer once the votes have been counted and negotiations between the parties on the formation of the government have begun.

For Bosnia and Herzegovina, the election result will determine not only the internal balance of power between political forces, but also whether the country will be able to accelerate the reforms necessary to actually begin negotiations on EU accession.

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