German Foreign Minister Johann Wadeful stated that Berlin is working on the assumption that Russia may have further plans beyond the war against Ukraine. Speaking on ntv, he mentioned Georgia, Moldova, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. This is a political risk assessment, not a report of a confirmed plan for a Russian invasion.
Briefly about the main points
- Vadeful suggested that the Kremlin’s objectives might extend beyond Ukraine.
- In this context, he mentioned Georgia, Moldova and the three Baltic states.
- Poland was cited as an example of a NATO ally, rather than a potential target.
- Berlin has pledged to fulfil its alliance obligations in the event of an attack on a member of the Alliance.
- Germany links the cyber-attacks and the incident at Leipzig/Halle Airport to Russia.
The assessment was linked to Putin’s rhetoric about the USSR
Vadeful said that the German government must assume that Moscow has «further plans». In his view, Russia’s current actions are difficult to explain solely by the war against Ukraine, since full-scale invasion It had significant economic ties with Europe and cooperated with Kyiv.
The minister linked his assessment to the comments Vladimir Putin on the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 2005, the Russian president described this event as «the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century». Wadeful interpreted this rhetoric as a possible desire on the part of the Kremlin to restore its former sphere of influence.
At the same time, the head German diplomacy He did not claim that Russia had already decided to attack a specific country. His statement concerned an assessment of Moscow’s possible geopolitical intentions.
Poland was mentioned in connection with NATO’s collective defence mechanism
According to Wadeful, the situation with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania differs from that of the other states mentioned, as they are members of NATO. The minister cited Poland in the same security context — as an ally, an attack on which would directly affect Germany.
Vadeful stated that if Russian forces were to cross the border of Poland or the Baltic allies, this would constitute an attack on a member state of the Alliance. Berlin, he said, would honour its allied commitments.
Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty defines an armed attack against one member of the Alliance as an attack against them all. NATO member states are to provide assistance by taking such action as each deems necessary, including, if required, the use of armed force.
Berlin links hybrid actions against Germany to Russia
The Foreign Minister also stated that Germany is already facing Russian hybrid attacks. He cited cyberattacks and the drone incident at Leipzig/Halle Airport as examples.
Vadeful did not describe these events as a war between Russia and Germany. At the same time, he characterised such actions as hostile and as posing a serious threat.
In September, the German government held Russia responsible for the attempted attack on Leipzig/Halle Airport on 4 August. Berlin described the incident as a hybrid attack and stated that it would respond in conjunction with its NATO and EU partners.
