Ukraine could receive around €30 billion in financial support from the European Union by the end of 2026, provided that the agreed reforms continue and the necessary procedures are completed. This was stated on 19 October in Brussels by European Commission spokesperson Balázs Ujvári, who noted that the majority of the sum relates to the Ukraine Support Loan programme.
Briefly about the main points
- Ukraine could receive around €30 billion from the EU by the end of 2026.
- Payments are subject to compliance with the programme conditions and the necessary procedures.
- The European Commission is still assessing the second tranche, worth approximately €3.7 billion.
- In 2027, there may still be a financial shortfall of around €70 billion.
Payments are not automatic
According to Ujvari, around €30 billion is included in the funding package being prepared for Ukraine in 2026. Most of the funds are expected to be channelled through Ukraine Support Loan, whilst the remainder consists of other EU financial instruments.
A spokesperson for the European Commission has linked further payments to the continuation of reforms agreed with the European Union and the completion of the procedures set out in the relevant mechanisms. Consequently, this refers to the potential amount of funding subject to the fulfilment of the conditions, rather than a single guaranteed transfer of the entire sum.
How the Ukraine Support Loan works
Ukraine Support Loan — is an EU mechanism worth up to €90 billion for the period 2026–2027. Of this, €60 billion is earmarked for defence needs and defence industrial capabilities, whilst €30 billion is for budgetary support.
Up to €45 billion is earmarked under the loan for 2026: up to €28.3 billion for defence and industrial capabilities and up to €16.7 billion for budgetary support. The figure of around €30 billion in potential payments in 2026 cited by Ujvari is not the same as the €30 billion budgetary component of the loan, which is spread over two years.
- Up to €60 billion — defence requirements and defence industrial capabilities.
- Up to €30 billion — budgetary support for 2026–2027.
- Up to €45 billion — the planned size of the facility for 2026.
What about the next tranche and the defence component?
The European Commission is analysing the laws recently adopted by the Verkhovna Rada before deciding on the second tranche of macro-financial assistance, amounting to approximately €3.7 billion. According to Ujvari, once it has assessed whether these decisions comply with the agreed conditions, the Commission will formulate its position on the disbursement.
In order to provide further funding under the defence component, the Commission must receive the agreements that underpin the production schedules already approved, the spokesperson explained. On 14 October, the European Commission had already disbursed €2.86 billion under this component for specific defence needs, including drones, air defence systems, missiles, radars, electronic warfare equipment and ammunition.
How does the European Commission view the funding gap in 2027?
Separately, Ujvari stated that, according to current estimates, Ukraine could still face a funding gap of around €70 billion in 2027. This estimate already takes into account up to €45 billion earmarked by the EU for 2027 as part of a two-year loan, as well as a portion of the commitments made by international partners.
On 15–16 October, the European Council instructed the European Commission to continue assessing Ukraine’s financial and military needs and to explore further options for action. The estimate of a €70 billion shortfall does not constitute a new, approved aid programme: the means of covering the remaining needs have yet to be determined.
