The trend towards rising bread prices continues in Ukraine, and by the end of 2026, the price could rise by a further 6–10%. This forecast was announced on 20 October by Denis Marchuk, deputy chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, during a broadcast on the «Mi-Ukraina» television channel. He cited Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, the high cost of backup power supplies and rising production costs as the main factors driving price increases. At the same time, Ukraine has sufficient grain for domestic consumption, so there is no reason to speak of a bread shortage due to a wheat deficit.
Briefly about the main points
- By the end of 2026, the price of bread could rise by a further 6–10%.
- The forecast was announced by Denis Marchuk, Deputy Chair of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
- From the start of the year to September, the price of bread rose by 12%, according to the State Statistics Service.
- The cost of production is influenced by energy, logistics and labour costs.
- The use of generators increases costs for bakeries.
How much has the price of bread risen in Ukraine?
The rise in the price of bread in 2026 is confirmed by official statistics. According to the State Statistics Service, bread prices in September were 12% higher than in December 2025. In September alone, the price increase amounted to 1%.
At the same time, the overall level of consumer prices in Ukraine rose by 8.4% over the nine-month period.
Denis Marchuk He noted that the trend towards a gradual rise in the price of bread has been continuing for several years now. According to his estimates, over the last period, the products of bakery companies have become approximately 1.5–2% more expensive each month.
The expert predicted that this would continue an increase of 5–6% by the end of the year. During his speech on 20 October, he cited a range of 6–10%. These figures are expert forecasts, whilst the actual rise in prices is borne out by the statistics.
Why are Russian attacks on the energy sector affecting the price of bread?
One of the main reasons for the rise in production costs was power outages as a result of Russian attacks.
Bakeries use electricity at various stages of production. It is essential for operating processing equipment, preparing dough, baking products and maintaining production processes. During prolonged power cuts, businesses are forced to switch to backup power sources, such as diesel generators.
According to Denys Marchuk, the use of alternative power supplies significantly increases costs for manufacturers, processing plants and retail chains.
Additional costs include the purchase of fuel, the maintenance of generators and ensuring the continuous operation of the equipment.
These costs are taken into account when calculating the cost price of finished products, which affects their final price for consumers.
Why are sufficient wheat stocks failing to curb price rises?
Ukraine produces significantly more wheat, more than is needed to supply the domestic market. According to Denis Marchuk’s estimate, its production volume stands at almost 25 million tonnes, whilst domestic demand is approximately 6 million tonnes.
However, the cost of grain is only one component of the price of finished bread.
Marchuk explained that raw materials account for approximately 12% of the final cost of bread. The remainder is made up of processing costs, labour costs, electricity, transport, packaging and other expenses.
Consequently, even when there is a sufficient supply of wheat, companies may raise their selling prices due to rising production costs.
The expert emphasised that the current problems in the food market are primarily linked to production costs and the impact of Russian strikes on infrastructure, rather than a shortage of grain.
What other factors affect the price of bread?
In addition to electricity, transport costs and labour costs affect the cost price of bakery products.
Manufacturers cover the cost of delivering raw materials, transporting finished goods to retail chains, maintaining equipment and paying staff wages.
According to Marchuk, Russian attacks on storage and logistics infrastructure are creating additional costs for the food sector.
Businesses are having to adapt their supply routes to take account of damage to infrastructure and restrictions linked to the security situation.
A separate problem facing the agricultural sector remains the shortage of workers, in particular lorry drivers and the specialists required for the production and transport of produce.
All these factors are taken into account when setting the price that the customer ultimately sees in the shop.
Is Ukraine facing a bread shortage?
Despite the rise in production costs, Denys Marchuk sees no reason to expect a bread shortage due to a lack of grain.
According to him, Ukrainian farmers are continuing to work, and current wheat production levels are sufficient to meet domestic demand.
At the same time, strikes against logistics centres and infrastructure may make it more difficult to deliver certain goods.
Consequently, the main issue highlighted by farmers remains the rise in production costs. The forecast announced on 20 October, predicting a 6–10% rise in the price of bread by the end of the year, does not mean that all types of bread will necessarily increase in price by the same amount.
