Former Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has stated that the rapid build-up of armaments and military spending in Europe could herald a major conflict. His assessment was reported by «Censor.NET» on 20 October. The politician cited Rheinmetall as an example; however, the group’s publicly available financial statements do not corroborate the 17-fold increase in profits he claimed.
Briefly about the main points
- Vučić linked European rearmament to the risk of a global war.
- Sweden, Finland and other countries are increasing their defence spending.
- Rheinmetall reported a 39% increase in revenue over the first half of the year.
- SIPRI recorded conflicts in 49 countries in 2025.
- International studies do not predict that a world war is inevitable.
What is the basis for Vučić’s assessment?
Vucic He compared the current build-up of arms and expansion of military production with the processes that preceded the great wars of the past. He drew on a dramatic principle Anton Chekhov: if a gun appears in a story, it is bound to go off at some point.
The politician also mentioned the defence investments made by Sweden, Finland and other European countries. At the same time, these countries explain their increased defence spending as a means of deterring threats and the need to strengthen their own security, rather than as a decision to start a war.
Vučić said he would be glad to be wrong, but considers the international risks to be extremely serious.
What Rheinmetall’s financial statements reveal
One of Vučić’s arguments centred on the activities of the German conglomerate Rheinmetall, which manufactures armoured vehicles, artillery ammunition, air defence systems and other military equipment. The politician claimed that the company’s profits had increased 17-fold, without specifying the period over which this comparison was made.
According to the group’s official financial statements for the first half of 2026, revenue rose by 39% to 5.23 billion euros, whilst operating profit increased by 74% to 786 million euros. The order book and expected contract revenue stood at €80.5 billion.
These figures indicate significant growth in the defence sector, but do not support the claim of a 17-fold increase. Rheinmetall attributes the expansion in production to rising defence budgets and demand in Germany, Ukraine and other countries.
How many armed conflicts are currently taking place around the world?
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI, reported that in 2025, armed conflicts were ongoing in 49 countries. The number of interstate conflicts rose from three in 2024 to six in 2025.
As a result of conflicts, approximately 238,000 people died last year. This is fewer than the previous year, but more than in any other year during the comparable period from 2018 to 2023.
In its 2026 review, the International Crisis Group highlighted the escalation of international risks, but did not claim that a world war would necessarily break out. Estimates of the number of active conflicts vary due to differences in counting methods.
Previous statements and the current status of the forecast
In March 2026, Vučić suggested in an interview with the *Berliner Zeitung* that the Third World War might in fact already have begun, linking this risk to the struggle between major powers over oil, gas, rare-earth metals and other strategic resources. In February, however, he did not regard the hostilities in the Middle East as the start of such a war.
On 27 September, Vučić resigned as President of Serbia. The following day, he handed over his powers to the Speaker of Parliament Anja Brnabić, who became acting president.
As of 20 October, there is no evidence to suggest that a Third World War is inevitable or about to begin. The available data point to a rise in defence spending and international risks, but do not indicate any preparations for a global war.
