Russian intelligence services may be planning new provocations in European countries, particularly in the Baltic region, with a view to subsequently blaming Ukraine for them. This has been reported by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence. According to the agency, potential targets could include critical infrastructure, border areas, as well as religious and historical sites linked to Russia. The Kaliningrad Oblast of the Russian Federation is mentioned among the possible locations for such provocations. The Main Intelligence Directorate warns that such actions could be used to discredit Ukraine and undermine support for Kyiv amongst its European partners.
- The Main Intelligence Directorate reports that Russia is preparing new provocations in Europe.
- The Russian security services may be paying particular attention to the Baltic states.
- Potential targets include critical infrastructure and border areas.
- The Kaliningrad Region, Russian Orthodox Church sites and historical places associated with Russia are also mentioned.
- A possible aim of these provocations is to discredit Kyiv and undermine international support for Ukraine.
What kind of provocations might Russia be planning?
According to Ukrainian military intelligence, the Russian security services are considering the possibility of carrying out operations that could subsequently be portrayed as actions by the Ukrainian side.
In the spotlight — Baltic States, where any serious security incident could cause a major international outcry. Of particular concern is the possibility of provocations near national borders and at critical infrastructure sites.
Properties belonging to the Russian Orthodox Church and historical sites associated with Russia are also cited as possible targets. Such incidents could provide a pretext for propaganda campaigns directed against Ukraine.
The report specifically mentions Kaliningrad Oblast — a Russian region bordering Poland and Lithuania.
At the same time, the Main Intelligence Directorate does not provide any specific dates or addresses for potential provocations. There is currently no information regarding the implementation of these particular scenarios.
Why would Moscow accuse Ukraine?
According to intelligence assessments, one of the Kremlin’s possible strategies is to create pretexts for a new wave of anti-Ukrainian statements in the European media landscape.
In the event of an incident, the Russian side may attempt to place the blame on Kyiv even before an independent investigation has been completed. Such accusations could exacerbate political disputes within European countries, particularly regarding further military and financial aid to Ukraine.
The stance taken by Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia remains a key factor. These countries have consistently supported Ukraine and advocated for the strengthening of European security in the face of Russian aggression.
However, the mere fact that a warning has been issued about possible provocations does not mean that a decision to carry them out has already been taken, or that specific sites are under immediate threat.
The Main Intelligence Directorate had previously warned its partners about Russian sabotage operations
In early October, Ukrainian military intelligence had already reported that Russian security services were preparing hybrid operations on the territory of the European Union and NATO.
On 2 October, the Main Intelligence Directorate stated that Moscow was planning to step up the activities of agents recruited by Russian military intelligence and the FSB.
At the time, military installations, critical infrastructure, communications systems and Starlink satellite internet receiving stations in European countries were cited as possible targets.
According to the ministry, the relevant warning has been passed on to international partners.
The Baltic states have already warned of the risk of attacks carried out under a false flag
In August 2026, the Centre for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine reported a similar threat, citing the Lithuanian Minister of Defence.
At the time, there was talk of Russia potentially using captured Ukrainian drones to carry out strikes on infrastructure targets in the Baltic region. Under such a scenario, Moscow might attempt to portray the attack as having been carried out by Ukraine.
The Centre for Countering Disinformation also highlighted the reaction of Russian propaganda outlets, which used the Lithuanian side’s warning to spread counter-accusations against Ukraine.
A new report from the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) states that Ukrainian intelligence continues to regard provocations carried out under a foreign flag as one of the possible tools of Russian hybrid operations in Europe.
At present, specific scenarios remain at the level of intelligence warnings. There is no independent confirmation in open sources of preparations for attacks on the religious and historical sites mentioned.
