Russia is developing several options for an offensive from Belarus, focusing on creating a buffer zone in Chernihiv Oblast. Active actions are expected no earlier than autumn 2026, and the threat is currently assessed as low due to the insufficient number of troops near the border.
Basic context
According to sources in the Defence Forces, the Kremlin is planning several scenarios offensive from the territory of Belarus on the northern borders of Ukraine. The most realistic solution is the creation of a 10-20 km deep «buffer zone» in Chernihiv region. This solution is aimed at restraining the reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and preventing their transfer to other parts of the frontline.
Active operations in this area are likely to begin no earlier than autumn 2026. As of the end of May, the threat level remained low due to the lack of sufficient military groups near the border. There are about 1,900 local military personnel on rotation in Belarus, which is approximately 4 battalions.
Military resources and strategic goals of the Kremlin
In order to implement its plans, the Kremlin is considering recruiting an additional 100,000 people to the army on the northern borders. This indicates the scale of the intentions to create a controlled «sanitary zone» on Ukrainian territory.
The creation of such a zone is intended to force the Ukrainian command to weaken the grouping of troops in Donetsk region. Such a step could affect the overall dynamics of the front, forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to distribute forces between several directions.
A repeat assault on Ukraine's capital is currently considered the least likely due to the enemy's limited resources. This underlines that the Kremlin is focused on strategic limited operations rather than large-scale offensives.
Impact on the situation in Ukraine and the region
The Kremlin's initiative to create a buffer zone on Ukraine's northern borders could have a significant impact on the security situation. Restricting the movement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reserves would weaken their mobility and flexibility in responding to threats.
It could also lead to increased tension on the eastern front, as Ukraine would be forced to redeploy forces to maintain defence in Chernihiv region. The absence of large-scale attacks on the capital demonstrates the Kremlin's pragmatic approach to using limited resources.
Further developments in the situation will depend on the ability of the Ukrainian military to hold their positions and the international community's response to a potential escalation in the north.
