Vladimir Putin has stated that the priority of the Russian budget for the next three years will be «strengthening defence». He also expressed the hope that, during this period, Russia will achieve its objectives in the war against Ukraine, which the Kremlin refers to as a «special military operation». Russia’s three-year federal budget covers the years 2026–2028.
Briefly about the main points
- Putin has named strengthening defence as a budgetary priority for the next three years.
- He hopes to achieve the war aims during this period.
- Russia’s budget plan covers the years 2026–2028.
- The budget for defence expenditure in 2026 amounts to 12.93 trillion roubles.
- A three-year budget does not guarantee the duration of the active phase of the war.
Defence as a priority in the three-year plan
The federal budget approved in Russia covers the period 2026–2028. The Russian government has cited funding for «defence and security», as well as support for war veterans and their families, as among its priorities.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), 12.93 trillion roubles have been allocated under the «national defence» budget line for 2026. The budget for 2027 is set at 13.57 trillion roubles, and for 2028 at 13.05 trillion roubles. The budget also includes separate expenditure under the heading «national security and law enforcement».
The highest nominal figure for defence expenditure in this plan is for 2027. However, budget estimates are subject to review, and the figures shown do not reflect the full extent of war-related expenditure.
Declaration of the Aims of the War
Putin linked the three-year timeframe for strengthening defence to the expectation that Russia will be able to achieve its objectives in the war. He did not specify exactly what criteria the Kremlin would use to determine whether these objectives had been achieved.
This statement continues the Kremlin’s public rhetoric rather than setting out a new objective: at the end of 2025, Putin also claimed that Russia would achieve its military objectives in Ukraine. The full-scale war launched by the Russian Federation in February 2022 will be in its fifth year in 2026.
Financial resources and pressure on the budget
Total federal budget expenditure is projected at 44.1 trillion roubles in 2026, 46.1 trillion in 2027 and 49.4 trillion in 2028. According to SIPRI’s calculations, the defence budget alone for 2026 is almost 7.4 times higher than the planned expenditure on education — 1.74 trillion roubles.
At the same time, the financing of such expenditure is taking place against a backdrop of budgetary risks. Formally, a deficit of 3.79 trillion roubles, or 1.6% of GDP, has been projected for 2026. Expenditure and the deficit may exceed the approved targets by more than 1 trillion roubles.
This suggests that the Kremlin intends to provide financial support for its military capabilities up to 2028. However, the budget cycle itself is no guarantee that the active phase of the war will last exactly three years: expenditure parameters may change, and defence spending covers more than just the direct costs of waging war.
What the budget estimate might change
A further increase in expenditure may require a review of budgetary parameters, additional borrowing or the reallocation of funds, should the deficit and expenditure grow faster than planned. This is a conclusion drawn from the available budgetary data, rather than a forecast regarding specific decisions by Moscow.
In 2026, the European Union continued to implement restrictions against Russia’s energy revenues, its military-industrial complex, trade and financial services. Such restrictions, combined with domestic economic pressures, may affect Russia’s ability to finance its planned expenditure.
