The Russian authorities are moving to a new model of Internet control, which does not involve drastic blocking, but gradually restricts access to the global network through economic pressure and regulatory mechanisms.
Paid international traffic as a blow to VPNs
Pros. data Foreign Intelligence Services of Ukraine, The Kremlin is in fact completing the creation of a so-called «digital ghetto», in which users will find themselves in an isolated information environment without direct prohibitions.
A key initiative is the introduction of international internet traffic charges for mobile users. According to preliminary estimates, the cost could be around 2 USD per gigabyte.
Formally, this is presented as a change in tariff policy, but the real goal is to make the use of VPN economically unprofitable. If you use a VPN on a regular basis, most traffic will automatically be classified as international, even if the user is viewing local content.
The average amount of internet consumption is 25-30 GB per month, which means potentially spending tens of dollars just for access to the open internet. At the same time, telecoms operators have already stated that they are not technically ready for such changes and are asking for a delay.
Licensing reform: market under state control
At the same time, the Ministry of Digital Transformation is promoting a radical reform of telecoms licensing. Instead of the current 17 types of licences, it is planned to leave only three, but with much higher financial requirements.
In particular:
- basic licence - from 66 thousand dollars
- universal - about 400 thousand dollars
- General - over $1.3 million
For comparison, the current minimum capital for an operator in the Russian Federation is approximately USD 134. This steep barrier effectively destroys small and medium-sized businesses in the communications sector.
Mass disappearance of providers
According to intelligence estimates, the new rules could lead to a market collapse. Out of more than 4,200 providers, only a small proportion will be able to meet the new requirements.
More than 90% companies - regional operators, cable networks and local Internet providers - will face a choice: closure or acquisition by large players. As a result, the market will be concentrated in the hands of a few federal entities that are under direct government control.
Full access to data by special services
A separate element of the reform is the tightening of requirements for the installation of the SORM system, a technology that provides intelligence agencies with direct access to traffic and personal data of users.
A ban on the provision of communication services by companies and entrepreneurs who have not integrated this system is also being discussed. In fact, this means complete transparency of communications for the FSB and the elimination of privacy on the Internet.
Context: from isolation to digital autocracy
Analysts note that Russia is moving away from rough blockages in favour of more subtle methods of control. Instead of direct censorship, a model is being implemented that makes access to the global Internet expensive, inconvenient and technically limited.
This approach avoids a sharp reaction from the population, while gradually forming a closed digital ecosystem. In the long run, this means that users will be completely dependent on public services and a controlled information space.
What this means for Russians
The effects of the new policy will be felt in everyday life:
- Increased spending on the internet
- Restriction of access to international resources
- Reduced communication quality
- Lack of competition among providers
- full control of traffic by the state
In fact, we are talking about creating digital isolation, which works not through bans, but through economic and technical barriers.
Conclusion.
Russia is moving to a new stage of control over the Internet, which can be described as «soft isolation». Instead of sharp restrictions, the Kremlin is choosing the path of gradually ousting the global network from the lives of citizens.
This strategy helps to reduce social tensions, but at the same time leads to a fully controlled digital environment where freedom of access to information becomes a privilege, not a right.
