In Russia, a three-day voting period for the State Duma elections began on 18 September and will run until 20 September. Against the backdrop of a virtual absence of a strong anti-war opposition and the ongoing war against Ukraine, fears are growing in Russia that there will be another large-scale conscription drive once the elections are over. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has previously stated that Moscow plans to conscript a further 300,000 troops, whilst the Kremlin publicly denies that it is preparing for a new mobilisation.
- Elections in the Russian Federation will take place from 18 to 20 September.
- All 450 seats in the State Duma are up for election.
- Strong anti-war opposition was barred from the elections.
- In Russia, there are fears of a new mobilisation following the vote.
- Zelenskyy had stated that a further 300,000 people might be recruited.
Russia is electing a new State Duma for a five-year term
Voting takes place over three days — 18, 19 and 20 September. All 450 parliamentary seats are up for election: half are allocated via party lists, and a further 225 are allocated in single-member constituencies. The lists of ten parties have been admitted to the federal election campaign.
The ruling «United Russia» party» Vladimir Putin there is no realistic threat of losing control of parliament. Reuters and AP describe the campaign as taking place against a backdrop of intense political control and the almost complete absence of a competitive anti-war opposition.
The Liberal Party «Apple», which had openly advocated an end to the war against Ukraine, was removed by the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation from the ballot for the federal party list. Some of the party’s candidates remained in single-member constituencies.
Following the elections, there are fears in Russia of a new mobilisation
One of the main topics of discussion surrounding the vote was the rumours and predictions regarding a possible new wave of mobilisation after 20 September.
23 August Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that, according to information available to Ukraine, the Russian leadership plans to recruit a further approximately 300,000 military personnel, and by 2027 to increase the additional intake to around 500,000 people.
Vladimir Putin, for his part, had previously described talk of a new mobilisation «nonsense». However, in recent years, the Russian authorities have significantly changed the military registration system and the procedure for issuing call-up notices.
The AP also reports that fear of a new conscription drive has, in recent months, become one of the reasons for a fresh exodus of Russians abroad, although the scale of emigration is so far considerably smaller than it was following the 2022 mobilisation.
An electronic summons may automatically prevent you from leaving the Russian Federation
In preparation for a new intake, the following is already in operation in Russia electronic register of summonses, which makes it considerably more difficult to avoid the military registration office.
Under current Russian legislation, from the moment a summons is entered in the register, a citizen liable for conscription may be ban on leaving Russia. The decision is generated automatically within the military registration system.
If a person fails to report to the military registration and enlistment office within 20 days of the specified date without a valid reason, further restrictions may be imposed.
These include:
- a ban on registering a car;
- restrictions on the right to drive;
- problems with property registration;
- a ban on registering as a sole trader;
- refusal to grant credit and loans.
Consequently, for this new large-scale conscription drive, the Kremlin no longer needs to repeat the 2022 approach involving the mass distribution of paper call-up notices.
Bloomberg: Fears of mobilisation have reached the Russian elite
According to Bloomberg, fears of a possible mobilisation have spread not only amongst ordinary Russians.
According to *The Moscow Times*, citing a report by Bloomberg, Some Kremlin officials are advising their friends and relatives to leave Russia in the coming months, and are also looking for ways to open bank accounts abroad. According to the agency, similar activities have also been observed amongst some staff members of organisations involved in military conscription.
These reports do not confirm that a decision on a new mobilisation has already been taken. They indicate that concerns within the Russian system regarding the Kremlin’s possible actions following the elections.
The elections themselves are taking place amid reports of pressure
Even before the main polling stations opened, independent Russian media outlets were reporting that pressure was being exerted on observers and public sector workers.
In the Voronezh Region, approximately 400 observers from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation were barred from entering the polling stations, citing problems with documentation. In the Rostov region, Boris Miklyukov, an observer for the «Yabloko» party, was detained by masked men, after which all contact with him was lost. There are also reports of staff at state-funded organisations being forced to report on their participation in the vote.
Chair of the Central Electoral Commission of the Russian Federation Ella Pamfilova She specifically warned that there might be disruptions to mobile communications and data transmission during the elections, explaining that this was due to security measures.
The first election results are expected once the polling stations have closed 20 September. The question of whether the Kremlin will proceed with a new large-scale military conscription following this remains open: there has been no publicly confirmed decree regarding a new mobilisation.
