On 3 November, mid-term elections to Congress are taking place in the United States; the results will determine whether Donald Trump’s Republican Party retains control of both houses of the US Congress. Voters will elect the entire House of Representatives and more than a third of the Senate. The results of the vote will shape the balance of power in Washington for the final two years of Trump’s presidential term and may influence US decisions regarding Ukraine, Russia and other international issues.
- On 3 November, the US will elect a new House of Representatives and a number of Senators.
- Trump’s Republicans are trying to retain control of both houses of Congress.
- Voters determine the composition of all 435 constituencies in the House of Representatives and the 35 Senate seats.
- The results will influence budgetary decisions, foreign policy and support for Ukraine.
- The first results are expected on the night of 4 November, Kyiv time.
What Americans will be voting for on 3 November
During the mid-term elections, Americans elect a new House of Representatives, comprising 435 members, and vote in 35 of the 100 Senate seats. Of these, 33 are regular elections, whilst two are by-elections.
In addition, elections are being held in a number of states to elect governors, members of local legislative bodies and other officials.
The US President is not up for re-election this year. Mid-term elections are held halfway through a four-year presidential term and determine the extent to which the administration will have the support of the legislature.
The Republican Party currently controls both houses of Congress. In the Senate, the Republicans hold 53 seats, compared with 47 held by Democrats and independent senators who align with the Democratic Party.
In the House of Representatives, the Republican majority is considerably smaller. To gain control of the House once all 435 seats have been filled, a party must secure at least 218 seats.
To secure a majority in the Senate, the Democrats need to increase their representation by at least four seats.
The election served as a test of Donald Trump’s policies
The main issues of the election campaign were the rising cost of living, economic policy, immigration and a war between the US and Iran.
Public discontent over high prices for fuel, housing, food and healthcare services became one of the key factors in the campaign.
Military confrontation with Iran and rising global oil prices also influenced the mood of American voters.
Donald Trump has become actively involved in the Republican election campaign. Since the beginning of October, the President has held more than twenty rallies, urging his supporters to back his party’s candidates.
The Democrats, for their part, based their campaign on criticism of the administration’s economic decisions, immigration policy and military actions in the Middle East.
According to the results of the Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in October, approval rating Trump’s approval ratings were close to the lowest levels of his second presidential term — around 31–32%.
In which states will control of the Senate be decided?
The senatorial elections in states where the candidates are neck and neck in the polls are attracting the most attention.
These include Maine, Michigan, Alaska, Kansas, Texas, Ohio, Iowa and North Carolina.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and a Republican are vying for a seat in the Senate Mike Rogers. In Texas, the Democrats have nominated James Talarico against the Republican Ken Paxton.
In Alaska, a former Democratic Party congresswoman Mary Peltola is running against the incumbent Republican senator, Dan Sullivan.
In Kansas, the Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton is running against a Republican senator Roger Marshall.
Dozens of closely contested constituencies, particularly in New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Nebraska, will be crucial in determining control of the House of Representatives.
How the US election results might affect Ukraine
For Ukraine, a key consequence of the vote will be a new division of powers between the White House and Congress on matters of foreign policy, military aid and sanctions against Russia.
Congress approves federal budget expenditure, including funding for military programmes, and may pass laws imposing new sanctions.
The Democrats have repeatedly criticised the Trump administration’s decision to cut direct aid to Ukraine and ease certain restrictions on Russian energy supplies. At the same time, support for Ukraine remains among some Republican lawmakers.
Should there be a change in the majority, one or both houses of Congress will be able to exert greater influence over the consideration of bills relating to Ukraine, hold hearings on the administration’s decisions and demand
