Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are set to sign a joint defence agreement in Mecca on Friday, according to sources familiar with the negotiations. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the Chief of Staff of the Pakistani Army, Asim Munir, are expected to attend a meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The pact is being drawn up against the backdrop of a deteriorating security situation in the region.
Briefly about the main points
- The signing of a joint defence agreement is scheduled to take place in Mecca on Friday.
- A Turkish official has confirmed plans to reach an agreement.
- The specific mutual obligations under the new pact have not been disclosed.
- Negotiations on the agreement lasted almost a year.
- The pact is based on many years of military cooperation between the three countries.
Leaders’ meeting and status of the announcement
Two regional sources with first-hand knowledge of the situation reported that the agreement was due to be signed, and a Turkish official confirmed this. However, another regional source noted that it was not certain whether the agreement would be announced publicly on the same day.
Sharif arrived in Jeddah on Thursday with Munir and performed the umrah in Mecca. Erdoğan travelled to Jeddah on Friday. They are expected to hold talks with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia.
The negotiations lasted almost a year, but the terms of the pact have not been disclosed
The agreement had been in the works for almost a year. In January, Reuters reported on the negotiations, and Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated at the time that Ankara supported the creation of a broader regional security framework for cooperation and stability.
It is not yet clear exactly what commitments each party will undertake, or how the new agreement will affect the wider Middle East crisis. The current Saudi-Pakistani pact stipulates that an attack on one country is considered an attack on both, and covers «all military means», a Saudi official previously told Reuters.
At the same time, Pakistan sought to avoid direct military involvement in the war with Iran, instead aiming to act as a mediator. The country’s Foreign Ministry confirmed the delegation’s visit to the Kingdom and described it as a step towards strengthening bilateral ties.
Attacks on the Gulf states and risks to energy exports
The three countries are increasingly concerned about regional instability, the role of Shia Iran and Israel’s more assertive policy. Since the start of the war on 28 February, Saudi Arabia has repeatedly come under attack from Iran, its Houthi allies in Yemen and Shia groups in Iraq.
The conflict has exposed the vulnerability of states Persian Gulf and disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the strait. For Riyadh, this poses risks to oil exports and development plans, whilst also raising questions about the reliability of US security guarantees.
Turkey and Pakistan, situated on the region’s borders, have avoided any major direct attacks. At the same time, both countries have an interest in reducing tensions that could affect their security and economies.
The agreement is based on long-standing military cooperation
The choice of Mecca, Islam’s holiest city, lends the agreement symbolic significance. For decades, Pakistan has provided training and technical assistance to Saudi forces, whilst Turkey and Pakistan have exchanged naval vessels and training aircraft.
In 2023, Riyadh agreed to purchase Turkish drones — Ankara described the contract as Turkey’s largest defence export order. Reuters also reported in May that Pakistan had deployed around 8,000 troops, fighter jets, drones and an air defence system to the kingdom.
Islamabad is simultaneously holding talks with Kuwait on an expanded security agreement in exchange for energy cooperation and investment. The specific obligations of the parties under the new trilateral pact remain unclear.
