Russia is preparing a new wave of mobilisation involving 600,000 conscripts, according to Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate and Foreign Intelligence Service. The plan is to use these conscripts to bolster the formations and units currently fighting against Ukraine, as well as those currently being formed. The intelligence services believe that some of those mobilised may be trained at military training grounds in Belarus.
Briefly about the main points
- The Main Intelligence Directorate and the Foreign Intelligence Service have reported that preparations are under way for a large-scale recruitment drive in the Russian Federation.
- According to intelligence reports, the vast majority of the contingent will consist of criminal groups.
- Electronic summonses are subject to restrictions for those who fail to appear.
- The plan is to deploy those who have been mobilised to existing and new units.
- Some of the personnel may be trained at Belarusian training grounds.
Intelligence agencies have revealed the composition of the planned contingent
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate and the Foreign Intelligence Service, the vast majority of the future contingent will consist of people with a criminal record, those with drug addictions and other marginalised groups. Women sentenced to imprisonment may also be recruited.
The recruitment of prisoners in Russia is not a new method of manning the armed forces. It was regulated by law in 2024; however, mobilisation, conscription, contract service and the recruitment of prisoners are different mechanisms for replenishing the armed forces.
Electronic orders and restrictions for those evading their obligations
Russia has introduced a system for issuing electronic mobilisation orders and is developing tougher enforcement measures against those who evade conscription. For such individuals, total a ban on leaving the Russian Federation, difficulties in obtaining loans and buying or selling property, the revocation of driving licences and the freezing of funds in bank accounts.
Digital military registration and legal penalties for failure to report are already forming the infrastructure for monitoring those liable for military service. The combination of these tools may limit the scope for avoiding contact with military recruitment offices and speed up the selection of personnel for various recruitment channels.
Reinforcements for frontline units and possible training in Belarus
The priority has been identified as reinforcing Russian formations and military units involved in the war against Ukraine. A separate focus is on manning the Russian army units currently being formed.
Belarus had previously provided Russia with training grounds for military exercises. The Belarusian Ministry of Defence has also stated that designated deployment areas, command posts and training grounds are ready to receive troops, thereby enabling some of those mobilised to undergo training.
