According to preliminary forecasts and ARD exit polls, Die Linke is in first place in the Berlin House of Representatives election, whilst the AfD is leading in the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state parliament election. The previous governing coalitions in both states have lost their parliamentary majorities, so once the votes have been counted, the parties will have to seek new forms of cooperation.
Briefly about the main points
- Die Linke are predicted to come first in the Berlin parliamentary elections.
- The AfD has a narrow lead over the SPD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
- The ruling coalitions in both states are losing their majority.
- The CDU has historically performed poorly in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
- The ARD results do not yet represent the final outcome of the vote.
In Berlin, Die Linke is vying to become the largest party in parliament
According to ARD’s forecast, Die Linke is set to receive 24.5% of the vote and could become the largest political force in the Berlin Parliament for the first time. The CDU, which leads the current city coalition alongside the SPD, is set to secure around 20%.
Next are AfD the CDU with 16%, the Greens with 15%, the SPD with 12%, the BSW with 5% and the FDP with 2.5%. Under these circumstances, the CDU–SPD coalition will not have enough seats to continue governing as before.
The AfD’s lead does not guarantee that it will form a government in the state
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD is projected to win 37% votes, whilst the SPD, which governed the state prior to the election, is on 35.5%. The gap between the parties stands at 1.5 percentage points.
Coming first does not automatically mean being granted a government mandate. Other parties do not intend to form a coalition with the AfD, so in order to secure a parliamentary majority, it needs a partner, which it does not currently have. ARD believes that the SPD could form a government with the support of other political parties.
The CDU has come close to failing to clear the electoral threshold; Merz described the result as a «disaster»
The Christian Democratic Union in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania has secured 5.5% — just above the five per cent threshold required to enter the state parliament. This is the CDU’s worst result in state parliamentary elections since 1949.
The CDU heads the federal government, and its leader Friedrich Merz is the Chancellor of Germany. He described the party’s result as a «disaster», but stated that he would not back down from the federal government’s planned reforms and would take responsibility for the way forward.
The final coalition arithmetic will depend on the vote count
The ARD figures given are preliminary forecasts and exit poll results; therefore, the final distribution of seats may differ. This will be known once the vote count has been completed.
Coalition negotiations in both states will depend on the number of seats in the parliaments. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, in particular, a few tenths of a percentage point could make all the difference for parties hovering around the five per cent threshold.
