On 2 October, *The New York Times* reported on a document that the Ukrainian side described as an intercepted Russian plan for a winter campaign against energy infrastructure. According to the NYT, it suggests a risk of widespread disruptions to electricity, heating, water supply and sewerage services in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa; however, the authenticity of the document and the likelihood of such a scenario have not been independently confirmed.
Briefly about the main points
- The NYT reported on a document that Ukraine described as an intercepted Russian plan.
- It features Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa.
- The reported losses of up to 90% are not a forecast, but the content of the document.
- The September attacks described do not confirm the authenticity of the document.
What scenario is described in the document?
Pros. data According to the NYT, the document allegedly outlines three successive stages. The first involves targeting substations near the western border, through which Ukraine receives electricity imported from Europe.
The second stage is said to involve attacks on hydroelectric power stations, pumping stations and wastewater treatment plants. The third, according to reports, involves an attempt to forcibly shut down three Ukrainian nuclear power stations by striking their associated distribution equipment or substations.
This is not a statement regarding a direct strike on reactor facilities. The figures regarding a possible reduction in electricity supply by 90% and heat supply by up to 90% are a description of the projected consequences in this document, rather than an independent technical assessment or a guaranteed outcome.
What is known about nuclear power stations
IAEA A report published in June 2025 identified the Khmelnytskyi, Rivne and South Ukraine nuclear power stations as the three plants that were generating electricity for the Ukrainian grid at that time. According to that report, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station was in cold shutdown.
However, this report does not specify the operational status of the power units as at 2 October 2026. There is no independent access to the document referred to by the NYT, nor is its full text available.
Confirmed context of the attacks and preparations in Kyiv
Ukrmedia reported a massive Russian attack on the night of 30 September and power cuts. The Ukrainian authorities cited the energy infrastructure of Kyiv and the surrounding region as among the main targets. This provides a confirmed context for the intensification of the attacks, but does not constitute proof of the existence or implementation of the plan described by the NYT.
In June, the Ministry of Community and Territorial Development reported that Kyiv had submitted an updated Resilience Plan for the 2026/27 season for further consideration. The existence of such a plan does not in itself guarantee protection against large-scale disruptions.
