Russia is abandoning its previously announced policy of reducing military spending and plans to maintain it at an exceptionally high level until at least 2029. Bloomberg interprets the new three-year budget as a sign that the Kremlin is preparing for a protracted conflict and has no plans to wind down the war against Ukraine any time soon. In 2027, Moscow intends to allocate approximately 17.1 trillion roubles — approximately $202 billion, which is 27% more than the previous plan for this year.
- Russia plans to spend around 17.1 trillion roubles on defence in 2027.
- This is approximately 27% more than the previous budget plan had anticipated.
- Between 2027 and 2029, it is planned to allocate more than 50 trillion roubles to defence.
- Putin had previously stated that Russia should start cutting its military spending.
Moscow has drastically revised its military spending
Russia’s draft federal budget for 2027–2029 provides for 17.1 trillion roubles for national defence in 2027. The initial forecast for this year was around 13.5–13.6 trillion roubles, so the new figure is approximately a quarter higher. Reuters describes it as the largest planned defence spend since the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine.
The high costs are not limited to a single year. The draft budget for 2028 provides for approximately 16.6 trillion roubles, for 2029 — approximately 16.3 trillion. In total, under the «national defence» budget line alone, the plan is to spend more than 50 trillion roubles. Some of the other expenditure relating to the security forces and the war is accounted for under other budget headings.
It is precisely this three-year timeframe that is one of the key arguments put forward in the Bloomberg article. The publication interprets these figures as evidence that the Russian authorities are building a financial foundation not with a view to bringing the hostilities to a swift conclusion, but to enable them to sustain a high level of military spending over several years. At the same time, the budget plan alone does not allow for a reliable determination of the war’s duration — this is an estimate based on the structure of future expenditure.
Putin had previously spoken of cutting expenditure
The new figures stand in contrast to statements made by the Russian leadership in 2025. At that time, Putin said that Moscow planned to to begin cutting military spending from 2026, contrasting this policy with an increase in defence budgets NATO countries.
However, the budgetary figures for 2027–2029 show a different trend. Expenditure is not returning to pre-war levels, but remains exceptionally high throughout the entire three-year planning period.
In 2027, defence spending will account for approximately 35% of all federal expenditure in Russia. When combined with expenditure on internal security and the security forces, the share allocated to the security sector will be even greater.
Military spending is putting pressure on other budget items
The increase in defence spending is taking place against the backdrop of an increasingly difficult budgetary situation. According to documents analysed by Reuters, Russia plans to cut social spending by approximately 7%, education — on 6%, whilst healthcare spending rose by almost 6,8%. There are also plans to cut some expenditure on infrastructure, agriculture and other economic sectors.
At the same time, Moscow is increasing its borrowing and the tax burden. The Russian government has also revised its budget deficit estimate downwards and cut its forecast for oil and gas revenues. Public debt could rise to 21.71 TP3T GDP, exceeding the level of 20%, which the Russian authorities had previously described as a safe benchmark.
Debt servicing costs will also rise: in 2027, they could amount to around 9.4% of total budget expenditure, and by 2029 — over 10%. This means that maintaining military spending at current levels is becoming more expensive for the Kremlin, not only because of the war itself, but also because of the need to finance the deficit.
The Russian economy is becoming increasingly dependent on the war
High defence spending supports military-industrial production, but at the same time increases the Russian economy’s dependence on government contracts. Part of the industrial capacity is dedicated to the production of weapons, ammunition, drones and military equipment needed to continue the war.
However, a significant proportion of actual military expenditure may not be directly reflected under the «national defence» heading. Certain expenditure may be channelled through other sections of the budget, and the actual level of expenditure in 2026 is classified.
Consequently, the figure of 17.1 trillion roubles does not represent the full cost of Russia’s military policy — it is merely the main budget item for defence.
What the new budget reveals about the prospects for the war
Moscow escalates the situation and creates the financial conditions for a protracted conflict. This assessment is supported not only by the sharp increase in funding in 2027, but also by the fact that expenditure remains at over 16 trillion roubles in each of the following two years.
At the same time, the budget is a plan that may change depending on the economic situation, revenue from the energy sector, the course of the war and political decisions. Russia has already revised its budgetary figures on several occasions during the year.
It would therefore be too categorical to say that the war «will definitely last for several more years». It would be more accurate to say that Russia is making financial preparations to be able to maintain a high level of military spending until at least 2029, whilst the new budget shows no signs of preparations for a rapid military withdrawal.
