Russia has stepped up its strategic aviation operations and is redeploying missile-carrying aircraft to airfields it uses to launch strikes against Ukraine. Monitoring sources report the redeployment of Tu-95MS aircraft to the European part of the Russian Federation and the preparation of Tu-160 aircraft. They warn of an increased risk of cruise missile strikes on the night of 7 October.
Tu-95MS aircraft are being redeployed from the Far East
As early as the evening of 5 October, monitoring channels began reporting on preparations for the redeployment of strategic bombers Tu-95MS from the «Ukrainka» airfield in the Amur Region to bases in the European part of Russia.
Reports emerged during the night that aircraft had begun flying. Various monitoring sources cite different figures — ranging from a few aircraft to eight or ten — which Russia may be moving to «Olenya» and «Engels-2».
According to unofficial reports from observers, some of the aircraft may already be ready to deploy the X-101. It is precisely these cruise missiles that Russia regularly launches from Tu-95MS aircraft during large-scale attacks on Ukraine.
Three Tu-160s may also be being prepared for deployment
Separately, monitoring sources reported that preparations were under way three Tu-160s. Reports emerged yesterday that a heavy-lift An-124 transport aircraft had arrived at the «Ukrainka» airfield, allegedly carrying a consignment of X-101 missiles to equip three strategic missile carriers. There were also reports of a possible redeployment of these aircraft to the «Belaya» airfield.
Russia uses the Tu-160, just like the Tu-95MS, to launch long-range cruise missiles. Their appearance at operational airfields does not in itself mean that a strike will necessarily take place; however, such movements have in the past preceded the deployment of strategic aircraft.
Observers are issuing a warning about the night of 7 October
Several sources that monitor Russian aviation have warned of an increased likelihood of a missile attack on the night of 6 to 7 October. One of the monitoring channels reports that at least seven Tu-95MS aircraft may be involved. It emphasises that this is a preliminary assessment, which may change depending on the aircraft’s subsequent movements and activity at Russian airfields.
As of the morning of 6 October, there had been no official announcement from the Air Force regarding the preparation of a specific number of Tu-95MS or Tu-160 aircraft for a combat sortie. It is premature to say that a strike has already been planned for tonight. The redeployment of strategic aircraft is one possible indicator of preparations, but does not guarantee that launches will take place.
Russia has already carried out a large-scale drone attack
The redeployment of air forces is taking place immediately following yet another night-time attack. Since the evening of 5 October, Russia has launched attacks on Ukraine 137 attack and other drones, including Shahed drones, jet-powered drones, «Gerberas», «Banderols» and decoys.
As of 08:00, the Air Force reported that it had neutralised 114 UAVs. Strikes were recorded at 17 locations, and debris from the downed aircraft was found at a further four.
The Air Force traditionally advises the public to rely primarily on official announcements and not to ignore air-raid sirens.
