Diesel fuel exports from Russia fell by more than 75% in September — to around 141,000 barrels per day, compared with 608,000 a year earlier, according to Kpler’s estimates. The decline is attributed to intensified Ukrainian strikes on refineries and oil infrastructure in the Russian Federation. This is complicating the implementation of Moscow’s agreement with the US on additional supplies to the global market.
Briefly about the main points
- In September, Russia exported around 141,000 barrels of diesel per day.
- The year-on-year decline in shipments exceeded 75%, according to Kpler’s estimates.
- Attacks on complex refinery equipment could delay the recovery process by months.
- Moscow had promised to increase exports in October and November.
- Global diesel exports have fallen by approximately 1 million barrels per day.
It is difficult to replace damaged refinery equipment quickly
An intensification of Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries and the associated oil infrastructure has limited Russia’s ability to export fuel abroad. An expert at Columbia University’s Centre for Global Energy Policy Tetyana Mitrova said that the range and effectiveness Ukrainian drones have effectively paralysed Russian diesel exports.
According to her, Ukraine has increased its stock of drones and has learnt how to target more complex refinery equipment. The restoration of this critically important facility could take at least several months and depends on access to overseas supply chains.
Moscow’s planned supplies may not return to the market
As part of an agreement with the US President Donald Trump Moscow has agreed to increase diesel fuel supplies to around 75,000 barrels per day in October and to 124,000 barrels per day in November. These volumes were intended to ease the pressure on the fuel market, where prices are rising.
Head of Commodity Market Research at Kpler Matt Smith believes that unless the attacks on Russia cease, it will be difficult to restore the planned volumes. In his view, this is unlikely without energy truce. At the same time, the supplies promised by Moscow remain modest compared with global demand.
Russia had previously restricted fuel exports in order to preserve supplies for the domestic market, but subsequently partially resumed shipments. Following the lifting of the ban, at least two tankers set sail from the Baltic port of Primorsk bound for Turkey and Brazil.
The reduction in supplies from the Middle East is exacerbating the shortage
The market is also being affected by a decline in supplies from the Middle East. According to Kpler’s estimates, diesel exports via Strait of Hormuz fell by approximately 540,000 barrels per day compared with last year. Together with the loss of Russian volumes, this means a reduction of approximately 1 million barrels per day in global exports.
Against this backdrop, diesel prices in the US have risen sharply, whilst American refineries are operating at full capacity in an attempt to make up for the shortfall. The International Energy Agency has warned that the tight supply of diesel fuel could persist until 2027. Smith expects market tensions and high prices to continue over the coming months.
At the same time, the rise in Russian exports is taking place against a backdrop of domestic fuel shortages: consumers are complaining about a shortage of diesel and high prices.
