NBU forecast
In its updated macroeconomic forecast, the National Bank of Ukraine notes that in A partial increase in electricity prices for households is expected in 2026.
«The increase will be limited and gradual. It is driven by the need to restore damaged infrastructure and ensure the financial stability of the energy sector,» the NBU said in its report.
Reasons for the tariff increase
The main reason is Large-scale destruction of energy facilities during Russian shelling in 2024-2025.
Significant investments are required to restore production facilities and modernise the grid, some of which will be covered by adjustments to retail tariffs.
At the same time, the regulator notes that The state will continue to support vulnerable groups of the population through a system of subsidies.
Energy balance and risks
The NBU estimates that in 2025 electricity deficit will be about 10 % from the pre-war level.
The gradual recovery of generation - especially nuclear and hydropower - will ease pressure on the market in the second half of 2026.
Economists predict that a partial increase in tariffs could be 10-15 % from the current level.
What's next
The NBU emphasises that the increase in tariffs is an inevitable element of energy reform, However, its impact on overall inflation will remain moderate.
The reforms in tariff setting and market liberalisation are expected to help attract investment in the energy sector and reduce the risk of electricity shortages during peak periods.
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