For the third day in a row, the official dollar exchange rate in Ukraine has set a new record, reaching UAH 44.34. The cash foreign exchange market is reacting ahead of the curve, offering rates 20-40 kopecks higher than the official rate. The NBU maintains the exchange rate in a «managed flexibility» mode and monitors the situation on the foreign exchange market.
- The NBU set the dollar exchange rate at UAH 44.34/$.
- For the third day in a row, the dollar has been hitting historic highs.
- The cash exchange rate in banks is 20-40 kopecks ahead of the official rate.
- Demand for foreign currency exceeds supply on the interbank market.
Increase in the official dollar exchange rate in Ukraine
The National Bank of Ukraine has set the official dollar exchange rate at the level of 44.34 UAH, which is a new all-time high. This is the third day in a row that the US dollar has shown growth, confirming a change in medium-term trends in the foreign exchange market. The appreciation reflects the current balance of supply and demand in the interbank market.
Cash market reaction to the rise in the dollar
At commercial banks' cash desks and currency exchange offices, the dollar is traditionally 20-40 kopecks ahead of the official rate. This means that Ukrainians are already seeing currency appreciation in the cash market, which was a result of increased demand and market fluctuations.
Factors affecting the hryvnia exchange rate
Analysts identify several key factors that put pressure on the hryvnia. Growing demand for foreign currency from businesses and importers remains dominant. Summer seasonal payments, energy purchases and budget financing increase the need for the NBU to intervene. The «managed flexibility» regime allows the hryvnia to move smoothly in line with market trends, without sharp jumps, thanks to the regulator's intervention through foreign exchange reserves.
FX market outlook for the coming days
Banking sector experts do not expect uncontrolled hryvnia fluctuations. Thanks to large-scale international financial support, foreign exchange reserves remain sufficient for stabilisation. The market will test new levels of resistance, and if demand stabilises, the exchange rate may consolidate in the range of UAH 44.30-44.50 per dollar. A slight downward correction is possible after this period.
