On the global market, Brent crude fell below $100 per barrel, but on 23 September it rose above this level once again. At the same time, fuel prices in Ukraine have changed by only a few kopecks: the average price of A-95 petrol is 89.26 UAH per litre, and diesel is 98.50 UAH. The situation is complicated by tensions in the international diesel market.
Briefly about the main points
- Brent fell below $100, but subsequently resumed its upward trend.
- The diesel market remains under pressure from shortages.
- A-95 costs an average of 89.26 UAH per litre in Ukraine.
- The average price of diesel is 98.50 UAH per litre.
Why did oil fall below $100?
According to Reuters, during the auction on 22 September Brent fell to $97.36 per barrel — its lowest level since 8 September.
Prices were influenced by the resumption of supplies from the Gulf states and expectations of diplomatic moves to bring an end to the fighting in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has resumed operations on the oil pipeline East-West, which facilitates the transport of raw materials to the Red Sea.
However, the fall was not continuous. As at 14:43 Kyiv time on 23 September, Brent was trading at $100.40 per barrel, whilst US WTI stood at $90.90.
Why diesel remains expensive
Despite the earlier fall in oil prices, the spread between European futures prices for low-sulphur diesel and Brent reached a record high of approximately $95 per barrel.
Reuters attributes this to concerns over possible restrictions on diesel exports from the US. Europe is reliant on American supplies amid disruptions to supplies from the Middle East.
It is the cost of finished petroleum products that is significant for the Ukrainian market. Director of the «A-95» Consulting Group» Sergey Kuyun He had previously explained that Ukraine imports around 95% of petrol and diesel. Delivery costs and suppliers’ premiums are added to the purchase price.
According to him, disruptions to the usual supply routes from the Middle East were one of the factors behind the diesel shortage and the rise in its price.
What are the fuel prices in Ukraine on 23 September?
According to data from the «A-95» Consulting Group, as published by Delo.ua, the average retail prices are as follows:
| Type of fuel | Price per litre | Change over the course of a day |
|---|---|---|
| A-95 Premium Petrol | 93.55 UAH | −1 kopeck. |
| A-95 petrol | 89.26 UAH | +3 kopecks. |
| A-92 petrol | 85.93 UAH | +6 kopecks. |
| Diesel | 98.50 UAH | −1 kopeck. |
| Autogas | 43.93 UAH | −2 kopecks. |
These are the average figures for Ukraine. Prices vary at individual petrol stations: according to the monitoring data provided, diesel at OKKO and WOG costs 99.90 UAH/l, at UPG and Ukrnafta — 97.90 UAH per litre, and at SOCAR — 103 UAH per litre.
Is there any reason to expect petrol and diesel prices to fall?
The data presented do not yet indicate any noticeable overall fall in prices at Ukrainian petrol stations: daily fluctuations remain within the range of a few kopecks.
According to Kuyun’s explanation, Ukrainian prices depend on the international cost of refined fuel and the costs of its supply. Therefore, a fall in the price of Brent below a certain level does not, in itself, determine the new price per litre at petrol stations. Conclusion from the current data: there are currently no grounds for specifying particular timeframes or the extent to which petrol and diesel prices will fall.
