British analyst Edward Lucas believes that Vladimir Putin’s regime has reached a critical stage. According to him, heavy military losses and domestic discontent could lead to a change of power in Russia.
- Edward Lucas believes that Putin’s regime is on the brink of collapse.
- The main reasons are military losses and Ukraine’s strikes against Russia.
- Possible scenarios: a coup d’état, a power struggle amongst the elite, a political crisis.
- The collapse could happen within the next three years.
Putin on the brink of collapse: an analysis of the situation in Russia
British analyst Edward Lucas considers that the regime Vladimir Putin has found himself in an increasingly difficult situation. In his column, he emphasises that the Russian president’s political future could come to an end within the next few years. This is due to heavy military losses, Ukraine’s strikes on Russian infrastructure and growing discontent within the country. About this reports Forbes magazine.
Lucas notes that frequent strikes by Ukrainian drones on Russian military, fuel and energy facilities are having a significant impact on military logistics and public sentiment. He pays particular attention to the situation in occupied Crimea, where problems are arising with fuel supplies and transport infrastructure. “These events are undermining trust in the Kremlin and creating a sense of losing control of the situation,” the expert notes.
Internal tensions and possible scenarios
The rise in tensions within Russia has also been fuelled by reports from military bloggers of conflicts between the troops and the command. Lucas believes that the greatest risk to Putin may not be mass public protest, but rather a power struggle between various influential groups within the political and security elite. “Internal conflict could trigger a change of power,” the analyst emphasises.
In his column, Lucas considers several possible scenarios: an internal coup amongst the Russian elite, a power struggle between the security services, a major political crisis, and a sharp weakening of the government’s authority due to military setbacks and economic problems. He also emphasises the importance of China’s next moves, as it remains one of Russia’s key economic partners.
Forecast for the next three years
According to a British analyst, if current trends continue or intensify, Vladimir Putin’s regime could collapse within the next three years. However, Lucas emphasises that this is an expert assessment, not a forecast that can be substantiated by facts. Debates regarding the stability of the Russian political regime have intensified against the backdrop of the war against Ukraine, economic sanctions and increasingly frequent strikes on Russian military targets.
