US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov began their meeting in Manila on 23 July. One of the key topics is expected to be Russia’s war against Ukraine and the possibility of resuming Washington’s mediation efforts. The talks are taking place on the sidelines of the ASEAN meetings; the parties have not yet announced the results.
Briefly about the main points
- The meeting between Rubio and Lavrov began on 23 July in Manila.
- The talks are taking place during the ASEAN ministerial meetings.
- The parties are to discuss Russia’s war against Ukraine.
- Washington is exploring the possibility of resuming mediation talks.
- There are currently no official announcements regarding the agreement.
A conversation on the sidelines of the Asian forum
The start of the talks was scheduled for 11.50 local time, according to the US State Department’s official timetable. In the published images, the delegations from the two countries are seated at the negotiating table, with the US and Russian flags displayed nearby. A brief ceremonial photo session was scheduled at the start of the meeting.
The State Department’s schedule has allocated around 35 minutes for the meeting, although its actual duration may vary. The Manila Ministerial Programme runs from 20 to 24 July and brings together ASEAN meetings and related forums, including the ASEAN Regional Forum.
What the parties have said about Ukraine
On the eve of Rubio. confirmed his intention to raise the issue of Russia’s war against Ukraine during the talks. According to him, the US wants to ascertain whether it can play a constructive role in finding a way to bring the hostilities to an end. The US Secretary of State did not announce a new negotiating formula, a deadline or specific parameters for potential mediation.
Lavrov Before the meeting, he stated that he intended to ask Rubio about the US President’s recent comments Donald Trump regarding a possible resolution to the conflict. The Russian Foreign Minister also stated that Moscow wishes to hear an explanation of the US administration’s position directly from its representative.
Public statements ahead of the meeting suggest that the talks may be a way of testing the possibility of re-establishing or continuing the US–Russia channel of communication regarding Ukraine. At the same time, they do not indicate the existence of an agreed ceasefire plan or a political settlement.
Bilateral relations and other crises
In addition to Ukraine, the parties may discuss bilateral relations between Washington and Moscow and potential areas of cooperation. Rubio had previously stated that the US was prepared to maintain diplomatic channels despite serious differences; he also pointed out that the US and Russia are the two largest nuclear powers.
The Forum in Manila has a wide-ranging agenda: participants are discussing, in particular, the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, maritime security, the situation in the South China Sea and the consequences of rising energy prices. The day before, Rubio held a separate meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi – they discussed US-China relations and preparations for future high-level contacts.
What signals can we expect following the meeting?
The very fact that direct talks are taking place maintains a diplomatic channel between the US and Russia, but does not signify any progress towards an agreement on Ukraine. Moscow continues its military operations and strikes on Ukrainian cities, whilst the positions of the two sides remain significantly different.
Official comments regarding the possible continuation of talks, discussions on a ceasefire and the conditions put forward by the Russian side will be telling. Until such statements are made, it is premature to speak of any agreements having been reached.
Kyiv had previously emphasised that diplomatic measures and pressure on Russia This should be coordinated with key partners, and Europe must be involved in the negotiation process. Meanwhile, on 25 June, the EU extended its economic sanctions against Russia until 31 July 2027 and stated its readiness to step up pressure on Moscow.
