Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has stated that Russia is making serious preparations for an escalation of tensions in the war against Ukraine and across the region. In his view, the next seven to eight months – particularly the autumn and winter of 2026–2027 – could prove critical for Ukraine, Poland and other countries in the region.
Briefly about the main points
- Tusk spoke of a series of worrying signs regarding Russia’s actions.
- He linked the risks to the war in Ukraine and regional security.
- Warsaw maintains regular contact with the CIA leadership.
- Poland is strengthening its defences along its eastern borders and preparing its alliance infrastructure.
- There has been no public confirmation of a direct Russian attack on a NATO member state.
Tusk’s assessment is based on developments over the past few weeks
Statement Tusk He made the remarks on 28 August in Olsztyn during a meeting with participants in the «Campus Poland of the Future» programme. He said that this was not a matter of isolated worrying signs, but rather a body of information that had been coming in over recent weeks.
«It is well known that Russia is preparing very seriously for an escalation of tensions — both in the war with Ukraine and across the region as a whole,» said the Polish Prime Minister. He did not publicly disclose any specific intelligence or the possible nature of such an escalation.
Warsaw is discussing the security situation with US intelligence
During the meeting, Tusk was asked about the recent the CIA Director’s visit John Ratcliffe to Moscow. The head of the Polish Government replied that Warsaw was in constant contact with the leadership of the US intelligence services, so the reports of their actions came as no surprise to the Polish side.
Tusk added that some security information is, by its very nature, confidential, whilst the public must be kept informed about the most serious threats. Reuters reported that during his meetings in Moscow, Retcliffe raised the issue of possible Russian military action and a further deterioration in relations with NATO countries.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy He also stated that Washington had passed on to Kyiv information about meetings that had taken place in the Russian capital. These contacts were not presented as confirmation of a specific scenario for Russia’s next steps.
Poland is strengthening its presence in the east and preparing an allied presence
Tusk’s warning is in line with the stance of the Polish authorities, who in recent months have increasingly spoken of the Russian threat in a broader context than simply the war against Ukraine. In June, Poland, together with other countries on the EU’s eastern flank, described Russia as the greatest direct and long-term threat to the security of the Euro-Atlantic area.
Warsaw is calling for the strengthening of the EU’s eastern borders, the modernisation of military infrastructure and an increase in defence spending. In July, the Polish government announced that the country would host the first «Coalition of the Willing» exercises, involving, amongst others, British and French military personnel.
At the same time, Poland is preparing the infrastructure for a longer-term presence of allied forces. These steps form part of Warsaw’s approach to the security of NATO’s eastern flank.
Poland’s security is linked to the course of the war in Ukraine
In July, Tusk stated quite clearly that it was in Poland’s interest to prevent Ukraine from being defeated. He described support for the Ukrainian army as one of the elements of Poland’s security system.
The Polish Prime Minister’s assessment also covers the countries bordering Russia and Belarus. At the same time, there has been no public confirmation that Russia is preparing a direct attack on Poland or any other NATO country; Tusk’s statement referred to the escalation of the war against Ukraine and in the region as a whole.
