Russia plans to use the territory of Belarus to launch drones that will attack the Kyiv-Chop highway connecting Kyiv with western Ukraine and Poland. Analysts ISW point out that this will allow Russian drones to improve the accuracy of strikes against moving targets on strategic supply routes.
Briefly about the main points
- Russia plans drone attacks on the Kyiv-Chop highway from Belarus.
- The attacks targeted strategic supply lines in western Ukraine.
- Ukrainian officials record Russian drones launching strikes from Belarus.
- Russia is using information training to justify strikes from Belarus.
Russia is preparing strikes on the Kyiv-Chop highway from Belarusian territory
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirm that Russia plans to use the territory of Belarus for drone attacks on the M-06 Kyiv-Chop highway. This route is a key supply line between the Ukrainian capital, western regions and Poland. The use of Belarusian territory will allow Russian forces to launch drones of the following types Shahed and Lightning with greater accuracy and the ability to engage moving targets.
Using Belarus to improve strikes on Ukraine's logistics
According to the Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Lieutenant General Alexander Wolfovich, Over the past week, Belarusian forces have recorded 116 attempts Ukrainian drones to cross the border. These statements are accompanied by an information campaign that creates grounds for «retaliatory» attacks from Belarusian territory. Russia has already used remotely piloted drones to strike logistics facilities, including an FPV strike on a Ukrainian freight train near Korosten on 22 December 2025.
Implications for the western regions of Ukraine and international supply
Attacks on the Kyiv-Chop highway could significantly hamper supplies from Poland to Ukraine. This route is important for the transfer of goods and transport links with EU countries. Increasing the accuracy of attacks by launching drones from Belarus poses an additional threat to the security of strategic transport lines in western Ukraine.
Context and Russia's information campaign
Russian officials are reducing the intensity of statements about strikes on Kyiv, At the same time, it is intensifying information pressure to justify the use of Belarusian territory for attacks. Russia has previously threatened systematic attacks on decision-making centres in Kyiv, but politicians such as Andriy Kartapolov, The real centres of decision-making are located in fortified areas outside the city centre.
Military integration of Russia and Belarus
Russia's activity in Belarus indicates attempts to increase military presence and integration in Moscow's interests. This creates new challenges for Ukrainian security, as it allows Russian forces to use Belarusian territory for continuous drone attacks on strategic targets in western Ukraine. Ukrainian services continue to monitor and record such actions, which indicates an escalation of the situation on the border with Belarus.
