The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence currently sees no grounds for concluding a peace agreement with Russia by the end of 2026. Major General Vadym Skibitsky, Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, stated that the situation on the front line and the actions of the Russian command do not indicate that Moscow is prepared to cease hostilities and move towards a full-fledged peace process.
Briefly about the main points
- The Main Intelligence Directorate does not expect a peace agreement with Russia to be signed before the end of 2026.
- Intelligence sees no signs on the front line that the Russian Federation is prepared to cease fire.
- Russian troops are continuing their offensive operations.
- The Russian General Staff plans to complete the capture of the Donetsk region by the end of the year.
- The deadlines for the occupation of the Donetsk region announced by Russia have already been postponed on several occasions.
The Main Intelligence Directorate sees no prospects for peace by the end of the year
Ukrainian military intelligence bases its assessments on the actual situation on the battlefield, and at present this does not indicate that Russia is prepared to end the war. This was stated by the Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi he said in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
According to him, the intelligence service does not expect any agreements to be reached by the end of this year that could lead to the signing of a full-fledged peace agreement. Skibitsky explained that the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) analyses not only Moscow’s political statements but, above all, the practical actions of Russian troops. Russia continues its offensive operations and is stepping up attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, which is not consistent with preparations for a cessation of hostilities.
Russia wants to seize the Donetsk region by the end of 2026
The military plans of the Russian General Staff remain one of the key arguments put forward by Ukrainian intelligence. According to Skibitsky, the Russian command plans to complete the occupation of the entire Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2026. The actual execution of military operations remains one of the Kremlin’s top priorities for the coming months.
This information regarding the deadline is consistent with previously reported figures. In July, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also stated that Russia had postponed the deadline for the complete capture of the Donetsk region to 31 December 2026.
At the same time, the Russian deadlines have been changed on several occasions. As early as the spring, Western media, citing sources and assessments from Ukrainian intelligence, reported that the Russian command intended to capture the whole of the Donbas much earlier.
Moscow has already postponed the timing of its takeover of the Donbas
Skibitsky had previously noted that Russia had not abandoned its demand for full control over the Donetsk region. At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are forcing the Russian command to constantly revise its deadlines. In June, the deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate said that Russia’s plans to occupy the region had already been postponed — initially, Moscow had expected to achieve its objective by 1 April, but the deadline was later pushed back to the autumn.
Independent assessments also cast doubt on Russia’s ability to carry out its territorial plans within the specified timeframe. The Institute for the Study of War has previously noted that, given the pace of the Russian advance and the complexity of the Ukrainian defences, there is no certainty even that the Russian army is capable of fully capturing the Donetsk region.
The situation on the front line will determine the prospects for the negotiations
Consequently, the GUR’s current assessment does not mean that diplomatic contacts are entirely ruled out over the course of the year. It specifically refers to the prospect of reaching agreements and signing a peace treaty.
Russian army is continuing its offensive, whilst, according to Ukrainian intelligence, the Russian General Staff has specific territorial objectives for the remainder of 2026. This gives the Main Intelligence Directorate grounds to believe that Moscow is currently focusing primarily on continuing the military campaign, rather than on bringing the war to a swift conclusion.
At the same time, the plan announced by Russia to seize the whole of Donetsk Oblast by the end of the year remains merely a plan drawn up by the Russian command, rather than a forecast by the Main Intelligence Directorate that the Russian Federation will be able to carry it out.
