The Kremlin is demonstrating its intention to continue the war against Ukraine, combining territorial threats with preparations for offensive operations and a possible intensification of mobilisation. Dmitry Medvedev has stated that Russia will seize more and more territory from Ukraine. According to the Main Intelligence Directorate, Moscow has no plans to conclude a peace agreement before the end of 2026.
Briefly about the main points
- Medvedev announced Russia’s intention to seize more Ukrainian territory.
- The Main Intelligence Directorate reports that Moscow has no plans to make peace in 2026.
- The Centre for Political Analysis estimates that the Kremlin expects the war to continue until at least 2028.
- Putin’s aim is said to be to gain complete control over the Donetsk region.
- Zelenskyy warned of a possible accelerated mobilisation following the elections in the Russian Federation.
Moscow’s public rhetoric does not suggest that the war is coming to an end
Statement. Medvedeva continues to follow the Russian leadership’s public line on maximalist territorial claims. In July Vladimir Putin stated that Russia would act «resolutely» and achieve its objective.
The Kremlin is increasingly losing hope of a swift political settlement and is seeking to strengthen its position on the battlefield ahead of any potential negotiations. Russian forces are also preparing for the continuation of hostilities in winter; Western officials and analysts believe there may be a new offensive and an intensification of attacks on Ukraine’s civilian and energy infrastructure.
Moscow links its military plans to control over the Donetsk region
Head of the Centre for Countering Disinformation Andriy Kovalenko stated that Russia is considering the continuation of the war at least until 2028. According to Bloomberg, Putin is seeking to establish full control over the Donetsk region, retain the territories he has seized and create buffer zones in northern Ukraine.
At the same time, the objectives stated by the Kremlin do not guarantee a swift outcome on the front line. According to the Institute for the Study of War, at the current rate of advance, it is unlikely that the remainder of the Donetsk region will be captured by 31 December 2026. As of 19 August, Russian forces had launched attacks in the Sloviansk, Dobropillia and Pokrovsk sectors without any confirmed major advances.
Ukraine warns of a possible mobilisation following the State Duma elections
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia was preparing a new large-scale wave mobilisations in the autumn, immediately after the State Duma elections. On 11 August, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the Kremlin was preparing an accelerated mobilisation of «several hundred thousand» people by the end of the year, as well as further conscription next year.
The Ukrainian side links this information to Moscow’s intention to sustain prolonged offensive operations. In July, the Defence Forces struck 14 road and rail bridges and crossings that Russia was using for military logistics, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence. This restricts the supply of fuel, ammunition and reinforcements to Russian units.
