On 30 August, the Russian Ministry of Defence officially announced that Russian troops had begun preparations for large-scale strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Moscow described the forthcoming attacks as a «response» to Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure and the fuel and energy sector.
Briefly about the main points
- The Russian Ministry of Defence has announced that it is preparing large-scale strikes against Ukraine’s energy sector.
- Russia described this as a «response» to Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure.
- Russia has not specified exactly which missiles or drones it plans to use.
- Ukraine is continuing to prepare its power grid for further attacks and the autumn and winter period.
The Russian Ministry of Defence has explicitly stated that it is preparing new strikes
In its morning update on 30 August, the Russian Ministry of Defence reported that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation «have begun preparations to launch massive strikes against energy infrastructure in Ukraine».
The Russian side claims that these actions are allegedly in response to Ukrainian attacks on targets in the Russian Federation, in particular on enterprises in the fuel and energy sector.
However, the Russian Ministry of Defence did not specify when exactly the strikes might take place, which regions of Ukraine are most at risk, or what types of weapons they plan to use.
The statement itself therefore indicates that a declaration has been made preparations for a new wave of attacks, but it does not allow us to determine the exact time of a possible strike.
The statement was made following Ukrainian strikes on an oil refinery in Russia
The threat from the Russian Ministry of Defence came against the backdrop of a series of Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries and other infrastructure.
Throughout August, Ukraine continued to to target businesses, relating to the production and supply of fuel. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had previously stated that Ukraine’s long-range strikes against the Russian oil refining industry would continue.
On 30 August, in particular, there were reports of an attack on the large «Kirishnefteorgsintez» oil refinery in the Leningrad Oblast.
The Russian Ministry of Defence is using the strikes on the Russian Federation’s fuel and energy sector as a justification for its announced preparations for new attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector.
The Ukrainian power grid is preparing for the coming winter
The risk of a new large-scale campaign against Ukraine’s energy sector remains one of the key challenges in the run-up to the autumn and winter period.
According to the Energy Community Secretariat, Ukraine is already preparing for its fifth winter amid a full-scale war. The Secretariat notes that around 70% of Ukraine’s pre-war power generation capacity was destroyed or damaged, and for preparation of the power system Hundreds of millions of euros in additional aid are still needed ahead of the cold season.
European partners continue to fund emergency equipment, transformers, repair work and strategic reserves for Ukrainian energy companies.
As recently as early August, the EU allocated a further €20 million to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund. The Energy Community Secretariat directly linked the need for such assistance to the ongoing Russian attacks on civilian energy infrastructure.
Russia has already stepped up its attacks on the energy sector
In recent weeks, Russian troops have repeatedly attacked energy infrastructure in various regions of Ukraine.
During the large-scale attack on 27 August, strikes targeted, amongst other things, energy and industrial infrastructure. The attacks resulted in damage to civilian facilities, businesses and logistics centres.
On 9 August, following a Russian attack on Odesa and the surrounding region, more than 300,000 families, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported.
Against this backdrop, the Russian Ministry of Defence’s public statement regarding preparations specifically for massive strikes on energy infrastructure may indicate Moscow’s intention to continue its campaign against the Ukrainian power grid in the run-up to the cold season.
At the same time, as at the time of publication There is no official information regarding the specific date or scale of the forthcoming attack.
