The Russian state news agency RIA Novosti has published an article with a headline referring to «yet another special military operation», this time against Lithuania. The author considers a scenario involving strikes against the country following the Seimas’ decision to push through an amendment that could remove the ban on the deployment of weapons of mass destruction from the Constitution. This is not an official announcement by the Kremlin regarding military action, but the article appeared following a series of statements by Russian officials containing threats directed at Vilnius.
Briefly about the main points
- RIA Novosti has published an article about «yet another short-lived special military operation».
- This concerns a possible conflict between Russia and Lithuania.
- The Sejm has merely tabled an amendment on nuclear weapons — the decision is not yet final.
- The Kremlin had previously threatened to make Lithuania a target for Russian nuclear weapons.
RIA Novosti reported on a «short special military operation» against Lithuania
On the morning of 25 September, an opinion piece appeared on the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti under the headline «Russia is facing yet another special military operation. It will be very short.». The text examines a possible military scenario involving Lithuania.
The author of the post is — Oleksandr Nosovich, project manager at RuBaltic.Ru and a member of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defence Policy. He compares the situation surrounding Lithuania with that in Ukraine and writes about the possibility of strikes without the deployment of Russian ground forces.
Thus, we are no longer talking merely about abstract «consequences» or changes to Russian military planning, but about a public discussion of a scenario involving direct the use of force against a NATO country in the Russian state-controlled media landscape.
What Lithuania actually decided
The vote in the Lithuanian Seimas on 22 September provided the immediate trigger for this new round of Russian rhetoric.
Following its consideration, Parliament supported the proposal to repeal Article 137 of the Constitution, which currently stipulates that the following may not be located within Lithuanian territory weapons of mass destruction and foreign military bases. The amendments were voted through 99 MPs voted in favour, 13 voted against and five abstained. However, the ban has not yet been cancelled.
To amend the Constitution, the Sejm must hold two further votes. There must be a gap of at least three months between them, and at each stage the amendment must be supported by at least two-thirds of all MPs — at least 94 out of 141.
Lithuania has not taken any decision to deploy nuclear warheads
Another key point: the repeal of Article 137 in itself will not mean the automatic deployment of NATO or US nuclear weapons in Lithuania. The aim is to remove the constitutional ban which currently prevents Vilnius from even considering such an option.
President of Lithuania Gitanas Nauseda He had previously stated that the current provision had been drafted under entirely different geopolitical circumstances and had now become outdated. Over the summer, the country’s political forces reached a broad consensus on the need to revise it.
The Lithuanian Ministry of Defence also supported the repeal of the article, explaining that an absolute ban restricts the country’s capabilities within NATO’s collective defence system.
The Kremlin has already threatened Lithuania with nuclear weapons
The RIA Novosti report was not Moscow’s first strong reaction.
11 September: a Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov mentioned the possible lifting of the Lithuanian ban «a serious escalation». He stated that if nuclear weapons aimed at Russia were to be deployed in Lithuania, Lithuanian territory would find itself in the crosshairs of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. Two days later, Peskov reiterated this position, stating that the deployment of nuclear weapons would not make Lithuania safer, but would turn it into a potential target.
The first deputy chair of the Russian State Duma’s Defence Committee was even more outspoken Alexey Zhuravlev. Commenting on the possible deployment of nuclear weapons in Lithuania, he stated on Russian television that Moscow would «not allow» this, and spoke of a possible advance by Russian troops in Europe.
Why the situation surrounding Lithuania is particularly dangerous
Unlike Ukraine, Lithuania is a full member NATO. Article 5 The North Atlantic Treaty stipulates that an armed attack against one ally is to be regarded as an attack against them all. In such a case, each member state of the Alliance undertakes to provide assistance by taking such action as it deems necessary, including the use of military force.
Therefore, the scenario of a direct Russian strike on Lithuania would mean a potential conflict no longer between two states, but between Russia and NATO.
The day before, the US also confirmed a new rotation of American troops to Lithuania. American forces have been stationed in the country on a permanent rotational basis since 2019.
Russian rhetoric is reaching new heights
Over the past two weeks, the rhetoric surrounding Lithuania has intensified significantly. Initially, the Kremlin spoke of an «escalation» and the possible inclusion of the country’s territory in Russian nuclear planning. Subsequently, State Duma deputies began to speak publicly about a military response. Now the state-run RIA Novosti has published an article containing a direct reference to «yet another SVO».
This does not yet indicate that the Kremlin has taken a decision to go to war with Lithuania. However, the very fact that a scenario involving direct military action against a NATO country has appeared on the website of one of Russia’s leading state news agencies represents a significant escalation in public rhetoric.
At the same time, Lithuania continues to strengthen its defences. On 25 September, the country launched the largest annual exercises of its mobilisation system «Vyčio Sky 2026», involving around 3,000 representatives of state bodies and approximately 1,000 volunteers. The exercises simulate scenarios involving a deterioration in the security situation, disruptions to power and communications, and the reception of allied forces.
