Musk estimated the probability of AI developing in a positive direction at 90%

The entrepreneur links this optimistic scenario to domestic robots, although he urges that close attention be paid to AI safety.

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In an interview with CGTN, Elon Musk estimated the probability of artificial intelligence developing in a positive direction at 90%, and in a negative direction at 10%. The entrepreneur predicts that AI will provide people with robotic companions for everyday tasks, such as assisting the elderly and looking after children, whilst emphasising the need for close attention to the safety of such systems.

Briefly about the main points

  • The comparison between 90% and 10% is Musk’s personal forecast.
  • He is looking forward to the arrival of robots to help people in their daily lives.
  • Musk named these vehicles C-3PO and R2-D2.
  • Tesla plans to start production of the Optimus by the end of 2026.
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Tesla’s robot companions and production plans

Musk He cited the *Star Wars* characters C-3PO and R2-D2 as examples of friendly and helpful robots which, in his view, everyone could own. His vision also has a direct business context: Tesla is preparing the first production line for the Optimus humanoid robot and plans to start production by the end of 2026.

The company stated that its ultimate goal was a production capacity of up to one million robots a year; however, this is a production plan, not data on the widespread use of robots in households that is already well established.

The safety of autonomous systems beyond the «rise of the machines» scenario»

Along with his optimistic forecast, Musk said that AI security Close attention should be paid to this. The International AI Safety Report 2026 identifies malicious use, unintended failures and the systemic consequences of their widespread adoption as risks associated with advanced systems.

The report specifically addresses the reliability risks associated with AI agents operating under limited human supervision. For robots performing physical or care-related tasks, the ability to work safely and predictably alongside people will be a key practical criterion.

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