Air war: results of Russia's air terror

In October, Russia carried out six super-massive combined strikes and used more than 5,500 air strikes in total. The number of missile launches is in the thousands per month; in 2025, there will be at least tens of thousands.

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Ukrainian air defence repels massive Russian drone strike
October was one of the most intense months of the air war.

Key indicators

  • In total, for October 2025: During the massive shelling, Russia used 5 579 air attack vehicles (AAV) - drones of various types + missiles (including simulators); of which 5 314 - UAVs. Night strikes accounted for 264 rockets. It was 6 «super-raids» (3, 5, 10, 16, 22, 30 October).

  • The most crowded days of October:
    30.10 - 705 ZPN (653 drones, 52 missiles); 05.10 - 549 (496 drones, 53 missiles); 10.10 - 497 (465/32); 22.10 - 433 (405/28); 03.10 - 416 (381/35); 16.10 - 357 (320/37).

  • That was shot down by Ukrainian air defence in October: 11 269 air targets (in particular 2 416 Shahed, dozens of cruise/ballistic missiles, as well as thousands of other UAVs and reconnaissance aircraft) - the official summary of the AFU.

  • CABs in October: in just one of the «peak» weeks - the ≈1 360 of guided bombs; in a month, we are talking about several thousand CABs.


What happened in October - the dynamics of attacks

Massive combined raids

October was another month of «conveyor belt» night shelling: Not a single «quiet» day without a UAV attack, six daily «peaks», each with hundreds of targets simultaneously. The final statistics of the AFU's aircraft, summarised in day-to-day reports, show 5 579 of applied GST for the month (of which 5 314 - drones; 264 - rockets).

The highest number of flights of the month

Night on the 30 October - 705 targets (653 UAVs + 52 missiles). The scale of this particular strike was additionally reported by the international media (652-653 drones, 52 missiles).

Air defence operations

According to the official result of the PS, in October 11,269 destroyed air targets: thousands of UAVs (including 2 416 Shahed), as well as cruise and ballistic missiles of various types (X-101, Kalibr, Iskander-K/M, X-59/69, etc.). This reflects the extremely high intensity of air warfare and the expansion of the «range» of weapons on the part of the Russian Federation.


KABs: the main «calibre» of Russian tactical aviation

  • October (current intensity): according to the president and official reports, in just one week Russia has applied ≈1 360 of guided aerial bombs; during the month several thousand CABs.

  • From the beginning of 2025: As of May, the Ministry of Defence reported >15 000 CABs; in March-April, the following were recorded peak monthly values ~3.3-5 thousand. (February-April). Since then, the rate has remained high, so the cumulative figure for the year is tens of thousands.

  • Trend: Russia has launched mass production and upgrades (including rocket-propelled gliders) that increase the range of the bombs and make them more difficult to intercept, although the SAR has already reported successful interceptions new samples.


Results for 2025 (as of today from public sources)

  • UAVs: in 7 months of 2025, russia launched ≈29 000 drones; in the autumn, the pace remained at a record high (October 5.3 thousand. in night raids). In total for 2025 more than 35-40 thousand. UAVs (assessment by trend and October peaks).

  • Rockets: in January-July - in ≈951 launch; in October ≈270 only in terms of night raids (the most since 2023). In total, in 2025 over 1.2 thousand. (estimate taking into account August-September and the October surge).

  • CABs: for 2024 ~40 000; In the first months of 2025 - in >15 000 (as of 01.05). Taking into account the summer and autumn waves, the total for 2025 is tens of thousands (at least 25-30 thousand +, a cautious assessment).


Methodology and notes

  • Sources for October: systematised daily reports of the AFU, compiled by Novynarnya into a «calendar of attacks» (peak dates, volumes of drones/missiles; total for the month).

  • Targets downed = targets launched: SAR reports on 11269 targets destroyed reflect the results of air defence operations (including on intelligence UAVs, other drones, and targets outside of nighttime «super-raids»). These figures are not the same as the number of launched in the night waves.

  • CABs: Official monthly totals for Russian CABs are not published regularly; therefore, we use weekly official statements (Zelenskyy) and MoD/ArmyInform reports from previous months.


What this means for winter

Russia holds high frequency nighttime UAV raids and combines them with waves of missiles and massive use of CABs in the frontline/border regions. It is critical to minimise the consequences:

  • build-up anti-aircraft munitions and electronic warfare equipment;

  • strengthening multi-echelon air defence over the energy sector;

  • acceleration raid capabilities (impressions of the carriers of the airbases/airfields). (The analytics are consistent with the findings of ISW and leading media.).

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