On NATO’s eastern flank, widespread disruptions to satellite navigation services have been reported. The disruptions have affected areas near the borders with Russia and Belarus — stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. This comes against the backdrop of warnings from the Polish security services about possible acts of sabotage and the infiltration of armed groups in the first half of November. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has confirmed the deployment of additional police officers, counter-terrorism units and border guards to the north-east of the country.
- GPS jamming has been detected from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, near NATO’s borders.
- The most serious violations were observed near Kaliningrad, in Poland, Lithuania and Romania.
- Tusk warned of possible acts of sabotage and incursions by armed groups in November.
- Poland has deployed additional police and counter-terrorism forces to the Russian border.
GPS jamming has affected almost the entire eastern flank of NATO
According to open-source monitoring data, significant disruptions to satellite navigation were recorded on 3–4 November near NATO’s borders with Russia and Belarus.
The highest concentration of interference was observed near the Kaliningrad Oblast of the Russian Federation, in Lithuania, and in the eastern regions of Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. The anomalies also extended to the western part of the Black Sea.
Less intense violations were detected over the territory of Belarus, the western regions of Russia, the occupied Crimea and the Caucasus region.
Consequently, problems with satellite navigation have been reported across a significant portion of NATO’s eastern flank — from the Baltic to the Black Sea region.
At the same time, the maps that have been published do not allow us to determine with certainty exactly where all the GPS jamming signals originated from, or which military units might have been responsible for them.
Poland has stepped up border security following a warning about possible provocations
These major disruptions coincided with the tightening of security measures in Poland.
On 3 November, the Prime Minister Donald Tusk reported that Polish and allied intelligence services had received information about possible acts of sabotage, provocations and attempts by armed individuals to infiltrate the country during the first half of November.
According to the Prime Minister, similar warnings had also been received from NATO allies. A similar scenario was discussed during a visit to Warsaw by the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Alexus Grinkevich.
In response, Poland has deployed additional police and counter-terrorism units to the border regions.
The operation covers the Warmian-Masurian and Podlaskie Voivodeships. The Border Guard, the armed forces and the security services are all involved in ensuring security.
Coordination is carried out by a special operational headquarters attached to the Main Police Directorate.
Suspicious activity has been spotted on the border with the Kaliningrad Oblast
The incident that took place on the night of 3 November was the reason for the increased attention.
According to Tusk, Polish border guards spotted near the border with Kaliningrad Oblast a group of unknown people carrying torches.
The Polish authorities promptly deployed additional forces to the area. The Prime Minister suggested that their actions may have prevented a provocation. At the same time, he acknowledged that it is impossible to determine with certainty the intentions of the unknown individuals.
According to reports in the Polish media, no breaches of the state border were recorded. The people retreated deeper into Russian territory.
The Polish authorities emphasise that the increased security measures are preventive in nature and are aimed at averting possible acts of sabotage.
Similar GPS jamming incidents were recorded prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
The situation is attracting attention because of the events that preceded Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
In August of that year, the monitoring project «Belaruski Gayun» published an analysis of archived data on GPS jamming near Minsk.
Researchers have established that intensive jamming of satellite navigation in the area around the «Dome» facility – where the command post of the Russian military group was likely located – began on at least 15 February 2022 — nine days before the start of the full-scale invasion.
According to analysts, the Russian military may have used electronic warfare equipment to shield the command post from reconnaissance and guidance systems.
Following the start of the Russian troops’ retreat from the Kyiv sector in the spring of 2022, jamming activity near this site ceased.
The use of electronic warfare (EW) assets in the run-up to the invasion was also confirmed by the American company HawkEye 360, which used satellites to detect sources of radio interference along Ukraine’s borders.
However, this historical coincidence does not mean that the current obstacles necessarily herald a similar military operation.
Why is GPS jamming dangerous for civil aviation?
Satellite navigation is used not only in cars and smartphones, but also in civil aviation, maritime transport, logistics and many technological systems.
Electronic warfare systems can cause two main types of disruption.
First — jamming, where a powerful radio signal prevents a receiver from receiving data from navigation satellites.
Second — signal spoofing, where equipment receives false coordinates or other navigation data.
For aircraft, such disruptions can result in the loss of precise satellite positioning and the need to switch to alternative navigation procedures.
European aviation authorities have repeatedly warned of a rise in the number of similar cases in the Baltic, Black Sea and other regions near areas of military conflict.
Do these new obstacles indicate that a Russian operation is being prepared?
Large-scale jamming of satellite navigation systems may accompany military operations, in particular the deployment of air defence systems, the protection of key facilities or counter-drone operations.
However, GPS jamming alone does not make it possible to determine the purpose of such actions.
Further evidence is required to draw conclusions about the preparation of an offensive operation: data on troop movements, the deployment of command posts, logistics, the preparation of strike assets and other indicators.
The Polish security services have already warned of the risk of sabotage and border provocations. At the same time, there is no officially confirmed information regarding Russia’s preparations for a full-scale attack on NATO countries in connection with the current GPS jamming.
The Polish police are continuing to step up patrols in border areas, whilst monitoring projects are tracking further changes to satellite navigation systems along the Alliance’s eastern flank.
