US intelligence has warned European governments of a possible Russian operation involving the launch of drones from the sea against Spain, France or Italy, reports El Mundo. According to the publication, the drones could be transported in containers on merchant ships; ports, airports and other infrastructure facilities have been identified as potential targets.
Briefly about the main points
- The governments of three Mediterranean countries have been warned of a possible operation.
- UAVs can be concealed in containers on merchant ships.
- The «Gerbera» drone has been identified as the likely weapon used in the attack.
- A small explosion could temporarily bring a port or airport to a standstill.
- Poland also has similar information, Donald Tusk stated.
Who has been issued with a warning and what consequences are being considered
According to the information El Mundo, US intelligence agencies gathered intelligence on the Kremlin’s possible plans for escalation and passed it on to several European governments. The newspaper’s sources claim that Madrid, Paris and Rome were informed of the risk of an operation against one of these countries.
The publication reports that the attack could have not only material consequences, but also political and economic ones. Even limited damage or a temporary shutdown of a transport hub could disrupt services and heighten public anxiety.
How, according to sources, drones might be used
According to a source close to the Lithuanian Ministry of Defence, Russia may be launching drones from the sea, concealing them in shipping containers on vessels. To this end, according to the Lithuanian side, they may use «Gerberas» — A UAV with a claimed range of up to 600 kilometres.
El Mundo notes that a merchant vessel is capable of carrying several such devices. According to the publication’s assessment, a small number of these devices is unlikely to destroy a large structure, but could cause a fire, damage exposed equipment or temporarily halt operations at a port or airport.
If the launch takes place 200–300 kilometres from the coast, the flight, according to the calculations cited in the publication, could last from approximately one hour and 15 minutes to two hours. The duration will depend on the spacecraft’s actual speed and flight conditions.
What context and previous events does El Mundo provide?
Lithuania and other countries received this information shortly after the CIA director’s visit John Ratcliffe to Moscow on 25 August, according to El Mundo. The Wall Street Journal and Politico reported that the aim of the visit was to deter Russia from carrying out attacks or provocations against NATO.
The newspaper also mentions previous incidents: the interception of 19 drones in Polish airspace, the incident involving armed drones at Leipzig Airport – which the German authorities linked to Russian intelligence – and the launch of a drone from the Russian vessel «Zhigulevsk», recorded by the Swedish military in the Öresund Strait in February.
The Swedish authorities took action against this aircraft and classified the flight as a violation of their airspace. The publication adds that Russian agencies had previously carried out demonstration launches of drones from maritime platforms.
France and Poland’s responses to the risks facing Europe
Following the Defence Council meeting on 16 September, the President of France Emmanuel Macron Two days later, he convened a meeting at the Élysée Palace with party leaders and candidates for the 2027 presidential election. El Mundo links this move to information that had been circulating in European capitals.
Analysts interviewed by the publication believe that geographical distance from the Russian border does not guarantee safety: the target could be the place where Moscow expects the greatest impact. Intelligence sources in the Baltic states link Russia’s increased activity to a desire to undermine support for Ukraine, exacerbate divisions within NATO and intimidate European society.
The Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk He stated that Warsaw also possessed similar information. He warned of possible Russian drone or missile attacks on countries assisting Ukraine, and noted that these countries had already demonstrated their ability to thwart such operations or to identify those carrying them out and those behind them.
