Global diesel prices have reached record levels: on 21 September, the average retail price in the US stood at $6.51 per gallon, whilst in the European Union, on 14 September, it stood at €2.159 per litre. Reuters attributes the surge to supply disruptions from the Middle East and Russia, low stock levels and the limited capacity of refineries to ramp up production quickly.
Briefly about the main points
- The price of American diesel has risen by more than 75% over the past year.
- The European price has reached its highest level in the European Commission’s history of record-keeping.
- Exports from the Middle East for March–August fell by roughly half.
- Russian restrictions have forced importers to seek alternative supplies.
- Seasonal demand and refinery maintenance may hold back price falls.
US stocks are struggling to keep up with high demand
A year ago, American motorists were paying around $3.70 per gallon, so over the course of 12 months diesel rose by more than 75%. According to AAA, the record was set after the average price exceeded the six-dollar mark for the first time in the first half of September.
At the end of August, utilisation rates at US refineries were at their highest level in eight years. However, this proved insufficient to replenish stocks quickly: by mid-September, diesel stocks stood at around 96.97 million barrels, almost 15% below the five-year average for this period.
The European record highlights the country’s dependence on imports
The weighted average price of fuel across the 27 EU countries has reached its highest level since the European Commission began compiling the relevant statistics in 2005. At this average price, filling a 50-litre tank costs approximately 108 euros.
Stocks at the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp hub fell to their lowest level for this time of year on 10 September. Europe is a net importer of diesel, so a reduction in external supplies is quickly reflected in retail prices and the futures market.
Maritime routes have restricted shipments to the Near East
According to Kpler, between March and August, diesel exports from the Middle East fell by roughly half compared with the same period last year – to around 800,000 barrels per day. In 2025, this region accounted for almost 41% of diesel imports into Europe.
The war involving the US and Iran has made shipping more difficult due to Strait of Hormuz — an important trade route for oil and petroleum products. Additional risks have arisen in the Red Sea, through which Saudi Arabia ships a significant proportion of its diesel. Reuters reports that these disruptions have pushed European diesel futures to record highs.
The decline in Russian exports has intensified competition
In July, Russia restricted exports of diesel fuel following a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, which have led to a fall in processing volumes. Russia is one of the world’s largest exporters of this type of fuel.
Prior to the restrictions, significant volumes of Russian diesel were being supplied to Turkey and Brazil, amongst other destinations. Following the reduction in these supplies, importers were forced to seek alternative volumes in other markets, intensifying competition for available consignments.
The stabilisation of Brent prices does not guarantee a rapid fall in prices
The International Energy Agency notes that many refineries around the world are already operating close to full capacity. As a result, the market has little scope for a rapid increase in production, and the shortage of refining capacity and finished products may keep diesel prices high even if Brent prices fall.
In Asia on 18 September, diesel swaps were trading at around $180 per barrel — below March’s peak of over $200, but roughly twice as expensive as pre-war levels. In the coming months, supply may be further constrained by seasonal growth in demand in the Northern Hemisphere and maintenance work at some refineries.
