Ukraine’s international reserves could rise to approximately $70 billion in 2026, reaching an all-time high. Expected inflows of international aid are set to support the foreign exchange market, where the National Bank sells over $1 billion every week. At the same time, the regulator has raised the policy rate to 15.5% to curb inflationary pressures and maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia savings.
Briefly about the main points
- Ukraine’s reserves could reach around $70 billion in 2026.
- International financial assistance could amount to around $54 billion.
- The NBU sells over $1 billion on the interbank market every week.
- The base rate has been raised to 15.5% to curb inflation.
- Economists believe that no sharp fluctuations in the dollar are expected in the near future.
The rate rose due to core inflation
Board of Directors The NBU has raised its policy rate to 15.5%. The regulator explained that the decision was driven by the need to step up efforts to counter persistent inflationary pressures.
Headline inflation slowed to 7.2% year-on-year in June. At the same time, core inflation, which better reflects underlying trends, accelerated to 8.1% and exceeded the regulator’s forecast.
NBU expects that by the end of 2026, headline inflation will stand at around 10% and core inflation at 9.2%. The Governor of the National Bank Andriy Pyshnyy stated that a higher interest rate should curb inflation and maintain the attractiveness of savings in hryvnia.
Aid replenishes reserves, whilst interventions stabilise the market
It is estimated that international financial assistance to Ukraine in 2026 could amount to around $54 billion. Such inflows could increase international reserves to approximately $70 billion — the highest level in the history of independent Ukraine.
Substantial reserves provide the NBU with the resources it needs to conduct operations on the foreign exchange market. The regulator, on a weekly basis, sells on the interbank market over $1 billion, offsetting the increased demand for foreign currency and limiting sharp exchange rate fluctuations.
Economists believe that there will be no sharp fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate in the near future. The hryvnia continues to be supported by foreign exchange reserves, international financing, a tighter monetary policy and controlled interventions.
Inflationary and external risks persist
The foreign exchange market will continue to be influenced by military risks, export and import volumes, inflationary trends and the situation on global energy markets. Rising oil prices against the backdrop of the situation in the Middle East This may exacerbate inflationary pressures in Ukraine due to higher energy prices and imported goods.
The central banks of Norway, the Czech Republic and Japan, as well as the European Central Bank, are also pursuing a tighter monetary policy.
According to the NBU’s estimates, real GDP grew by 0.8% year-on-year in the second quarter. The economic growth forecast for 2026 has been revised upwards to 1.8% thanks to support from partners, business activity and the gradual recovery of certain sectors.
