Estonia is moving towards a «active defence» strategy, which involves the continuous redeployment of forces closer to the Russian border and the development of long-range strike capabilities. One of the key steps is set to be the redeployment of the 1st Infantry Brigade from Tapa to Jõhvi, whilst the rearmament programme is being bolstered by nine HIMARS, nine Chunmoo systems and a defence budget of €2.4 billion for 2026.
Briefly about the main points
- There are plans to redeploy the 1st Infantry Brigade from Tapa to Jõhvi.
- The distance to the Russian border will be reduced from approximately 130 to 50 km.
- Estonia will have nine HIMARS and nine Chunmoo systems.
- The 2026 defence budget stands at €2.4 billion, or 5.4% of GDP.
- The military town in Narva is due to be completed in the summer of 2028.
From manoeuvrable defence to border combat
According to ERR, the Estonian military has revised its approach to a potential war following an analysis of the fighting in Ukraine. Previously, the plan had envisaged a manoeuvrable defence deep within the country’s territory whilst awaiting NATO reinforcements, whereas the new model emphasises engaging the enemy near the border and preventing the loss of significant territory.
Under this approach, the 1st Infantry Brigade is to be continuously redeployed from Tapa to Jõhvi. Tapa is situated approximately 130 km from the Russian border, whilst Jõhvi is approximately 50 km away. This refers to a planned process, rather than the completion of the redeployment of all the brigade’s units.
Commander of the 1st Infantry Brigade, Colonel Tarmo Kundla, as reported by ERR, stated that Estonia must «start at the border» and win the initial battles. This explains the rationale behind the command’s new approach, rather than the full text of the military doctrine, which has not been published separately.
Long-range multiple launch rocket systems as part of the re-equipment programme
Estonia has already received six American HIMARS systems and has signed a contract for a further three, bringing the total to nine. The Estonian Defence Investment Centre has reported that the system is capable of delivering high-precision strikes at ranges of over 300 km, depending on the type of munitions.
The Estonian Ministry of Defence has also confirmed the procurement of nine South Korean Chunmoo rocket systems: six were contracted for at the end of 2025, and a further three in May 2026. The Chunmoo has a range of approximately 300 km.
According to the FT, the Estonian military leadership regards these systems as a capability to strike, in the event of an attack, not only enemy forces near the border but also military infrastructure behind the lines on the enemy’s territory. ERR notes that the distance from Estonian territory to St Petersburg is approximately 260 km; this is a geographical context rather than the designation of a specific target.
€2.4 billion has been allocated to defence
Estonia’s defence budget for 2026 stands at €2.4 billion, or 5.4% of GDP, according to the Estonian Ministry of Defence. This is 42% more than the previous figure of €1.7 billion.
€1.27 billion has been earmarked for the procurement of weapons and military equipment — more than half of total defence expenditure. A further €3.4 billion is planned to be allocated specifically to ammunition between 2025 and 2029.
At the same time, Estonia is strengthening its air defences. The country’s Ministry of Defence has stated that the first IRIS-T medium-range systems are expected in 2026.
The Narva Project and risk assessment
У Narvi, near the border with Russia, a military town is planned, but it is not yet ready. The main construction work is expected to take place in 2027, with the complex due to be completed in the summer of 2028.
The project provides for covered accommodation for 500 people and a further 500 in tents. The plan is to station around 200 military personnel there on a permanent basis, and to rapidly increase the number of personnel in the event of a crisis.
Estonian military and intelligence chiefs do not consider a full-scale Russia’s war against NATO likely in the near future. At the same time, they are considering the risk of a limited operation or provocation that could test the allies’ readiness to invoke Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. The possible redeployment of Russian forces following the end of the active phase of the war against Ukraine is viewed in Tallinn as a scenario rather than a confirmed plan on Moscow’s part.
