The Ukrainian budget may be losing up to 20 billion hryvnias annually due to the activities of illegal online casinos and betting platforms. According to an estimate cited by Taras Shevchenko, president of the Association of Ukrainian Gambling Operators, the shadow market accounts for 55.4% of the total market, with an annual turnover of around 60 billion hryvnias. At the same time, legal operators pay taxes and comply with state regulations, whilst unlicensed platforms operate outside the established rules. Against the backdrop of the shadow market’s growth, industry representatives are warning of a possible reduction in tax revenues in 2026.
Briefly about the main points
- The black market for gambling is estimated to be worth 60 billion hryvnias a year.
- According to Kantar’s estimates, its market share stands at 55.4%.
- Potential budget losses could amount to up to 20 billion hryvnias each year.
- Illegal casinos pose additional risks to players.
Illegal casinos control more than half of Ukraine’s gambling market
Despite the legalisation of gambling in 2020, a significant proportion of the Ukrainian gambling industry continues to operate outside state control. Unlicensed online casinos accept payments, organise gambling and attract users via the internet, without complying with the requirements set for official operators.
President of the Association of Ukrainian Gambling Operators Taras Shevchenko He cited the findings of a Kantar study. According to his estimate, the illegal segment accounts for 55.4% of the market, and its volume stands at approximately 60 billion UAH per year.
This is not the first study to highlight the significant scale of the black economy. In May 2026, the Association published the results of another phase of the Kantar study, which was carried out amongst 2,500 respondents between March and May. At that time, the share of the illegal segment was estimated at 56.7%, and its value at over 61.6 billion UAH. The differences between the estimates may be due to the timing and methodology of the studies; therefore, without additional data, they should not be interpreted as confirming a contraction of the shadow market.
Regardless of the differences in the figures, the problem remains a major one. A significant proportion of financial transactions in the sector take place via platforms over which the Ukrainian regulator has no control.
Why do illegal casinos cost the budget billions of hryvnias?
The main financial problem facing the illegal gambling industry is that A significant proportion of transactions are not subject to full tax scrutiny. Licensed companies are required to pay the prescribed taxes and licence fees, keep records of their transactions and report to the state. Illegal platforms, on the other hand, may make use of foreign jurisdictions, intermediaries and non-transparent payment schemes.
According to Taras Shevchenko’s estimate, potential budget losses due to the unregulated gambling sector amount to between 12 and 20 billion hryvnias annually. However, these figures should not be equated with the proven tax liabilities of specific companies. This refers to an estimate of the potential revenue that the state could receive under a different market structure and level of legalisation.
By way of comparison, according to information from the state agency PlayCity, in 2025 the budget received nearly 17 billion UAH in tax revenue from the gambling industry and over 1.7 billion UAH in licence fees. These figures demonstrate the financial scale of the official sector, but do not mean that all funds from illegal operators can automatically be converted into additional revenue.
Why do Ukrainians choose illegal online casinos?
The popularity of unlicensed platforms is not solely down to advertising. A previous study by Kantar showed that some users deliberately choose such platforms because of terms and conditions that they perceive as more favourable or simpler.
Among the reasons cited by users of illegal platforms who took part in the survey were:
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49% — speed of payment processing;
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44% — no restrictions on play;
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37% — more attractive bonuses;
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25% — the potential to reduce tax expenses;
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18% — a simpler registration process.
These percentages relate to the survey participants’ responses regarding their reasons for choosing a particular option, and not to the entire population of Ukraine.
At the same time, the conditions that make illegal casinos attractive to some users may create additional risks. Such platforms do not ensure compliance with Ukrainian requirements regarding player identification, age verification, responsible gambling and restricting access for individuals listed on the relevant register.
Players are left without adequate protection
The consequences of the spread of the illegal gambling industry go beyond the issue of tax revenue. The state loses the ability to effectively monitor compliance with regulations designed to prevent gambling addiction and protect users.
Licensed operators must comply with legal requirements regarding customer identification, restricting access by minors and implementing self-exclusion mechanisms. For unlicensed websites, these requirements may, in practice, remain unfulfilled.
The situation is particularly dangerous for people with problematic gambling behaviour. If a user has voluntarily restricted their access to gambling, an illegal website may not take this restriction into account. This increases the risk of financial loss and a worsening of addiction.
In August 2026, the government approved a strategy to tackle gambling addiction up to 2035. The document sets out plans to develop prevention measures, improve state oversight and ensure access to support for people affected by gambling.
In 2026, tax revenues could fall by 27%
A particular cause for concern amongst representatives of the legal gambling industry is the potential reduction in companies’ revenues and in revenue for the state budget.
In a column for *Ekonomichna Pravda*, Taras Shevchenko presents a forecast according to which tax revenues from the sector in 2026 could be 27% lower than in 2025. Among the factors he cites are the problems faced by major operators and the migration of some users to unlicensed platforms.
However, this is a forecast by a representative of the industry association, not the final figure for the 2026 budget.
It is also important to distinguish between a reduction in revenue resulting from a contraction in the legal market and direct losses resulting from tax evasion. These are related but not identical economic phenomena.
How the state is tackling the illegal gambling industry
Following the dissolution of the Commission for the Regulation of Gambling and Lotteries, its supervisory functions were transferred to the state agency PlayCity.
Following the first year of the reform, the agency reported that it had blocked over 3,500 illegal gambling websites, removed more than 500 accounts containing illegal gambling adverts, and imposed fines on bloggers and media organisations.
However, blocking domains does not always mean that the operator’s activities have ceased. Illegal platforms can create new addresses, use mirror sites and alternative payment methods.
In April 2026, law enforcement agencies reported that they had uncovered a network of illegal online casinos which, according to the investigation, was linked to Russian nationals and Ukrainian accomplices. According to investigators, sums running into the billions were channelled through several websites and cryptocurrency payments.
What changes are being proposed for the gambling market?
The Ministry of Digital Transformation has already drawn up proposals to improve the state regulation of gambling. These relate to tax rules, digital monitoring and player protection.
The proposed changes include improvements to the taxation of gambling revenues, the synchronisation of financial reporting with the state online monitoring system, tighter controls over operators, and the introduction of clearer penalties for breaches.
The fight against illegal casinos requires more than just changes to tax legislation. Effective control requires identifying the organisers of illegal platforms, blocking illegal financial schemes and international cooperation, as some of these operations are run from abroad.
The problem of the grey gambling market remains a complex one. The state risks losing out on tax revenue, licensed operators face unfair competition, and users of unlicensed platforms face heightened financial and legal risks.
