The war in Ukraine is likely to drag on for years. European leaders are preparing for a prolonged conflict without a clear strategy for ending it.
Europe expects a protracted war
European governments are increasingly inclined to believe that the war in Ukraine will not end any time soon. As writes The New York Times, hopes for quick negotiations are fading, and Kyiv and Moscow's goals remain incompatible.
Officials acknowledged that the EU's main course is to continue supporting Ukraine and prevent Russia from winning. At the same time, Europe does not have a strategy that would allow it to end the war diplomatically.
Western support and its limits
Experts note that the West has been trying to strengthen pressure on Russia, but did not provide Ukraine with sufficient resources to turn the tide. Claudia Major of the German Marshall Fund emphasised: «We are just trying to keep the Ukrainians in the game until something changes in Moscow. But this is not a strategy».
The United States is increasingly focused on other global issues. This reduces the chances of intensive support for Ukraine in the near term.
Financial stability of Kyiv
Thanks to European credit With €90 billion in reserves, Ukraine has the resources to operate in the coming months. This allows Kyiv to take its time in reaching an agreement with Russia in 2026.
Oleksandr Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Eurasia Center, believes that Ukraine does not need an agreement this year if financial support is maintained.
Moscow is also counting on a protracted conflict
Russia, for its part, is also preparing for a long war. It is counting on revenues from high energy prices and the continuation of the current conflict dynamics.
Neither side has an obvious path to victory, which only reinforces the scenario of a protracted war.
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